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Big 12 Report – Week 8
By Joe Williams
ACC | Pac-12
2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-0 3-0 4-1 5-1
Iowa State 2-4 1-2 2-3-1 1-4-1
Kansas 0-6 0-3 2-4 2-4
Kansas State 3-3 0-3 3-3 4-2
Oklahoma 5-1 2-1 4-2 3-3
Oklahoma State 6-0 3-0 3-3 2-4
Texas 2-4 1-2 2-4 2-4
Texas Christian 7-0 4-0 3-4 4-3
Texas Tech 5-2 2-2 4-2-1 5-2
West Virginia 3-3 0-3 2-4 2-4
Iowa State at Baylor (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The offensive juggernaut that is Baylor will be home to Iowa State looking to keep their playoff aspirations on track. As a 36-point favorite they’re expected to do that, and then some, especially with Iowa State having dropped 13 in a row against ranked opponents and Baylor holding the longest home winning streak in FBS at 19 games. I-State has not had a lot of success against the number lately, going 6-17-3 ATS in their past 26 against ranked foes and 2-8-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS in their past eight conference tilts and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road outings. Baylor has crushed it despite some big numbers, going 26-6 ATS in their past 32 at home and 20-6-1 ATS in the past 27 against teams with a losing record. They’re also 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 conference tilts. The home squad is also 10-1-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings, with I-State going 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight. And the Cycs are 0-6 ATS in their past six trips to Waco.
Kansas State at Texas (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
A couple of weeks ago it might have been surprising to see the Longhorns favored by nearly a touchdown in this game. However, after K-State was undressed at home by Oklahoma 55-0 last week, the same Sooners squad the Longhorns upended two weeks ago in the Red River Rivalry game, it isn’t actually that shocking to see Texas favored. The Wildcats have a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and could be without four key defensive players in this one, as S Dante Barnett, LB Elijah Lee, CB Danzel McDaniel and S Kaleb Prewett are each question marks. Texas is expected to welcome back special teams standout Daje Johnson (concussion), a player who leads the Big 12 in punt return yardage at 17.6 yards per return. He also leads the team with 14 grabs for 201 yards, and could punish a beleaguered Wildcats secondary. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in the past eight, including 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Austin. However, the home team has also chased in four of the past five.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Red Raiders stroll into Norman looking to pull the upset, and the Sooners have a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who will face a Texas Tech he once led. In 2013 Mayfield was a walk-on and the Freshman of the Year in the Big 12 with the Red Raiders, but he left the team to join Oklahoma. Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury refused to grant Mayfield a release and he was forced to sit out the 2014 season despite a court case trying to get the NCAA to overturn the ruling. It certainly puts the focus on the OU quarterback for this one, but he isn’t the only story. Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes II has been tearing it up in Lubbock, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in passing offense, while Oklahoma leads the conference in passing defense. Texas Tech has covered five of the past seven inside the conference, and they’re 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 overall. However, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a winning home record and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 overall on the road. Oklahoma hasn’t had much success following up covers, going 1-5 ATS in their next six following an ATS win. They’re also 0-4 ATS in their past four at home against a team with a winning road mark. The over might be the play, as it has cashed in four straight meetings in the series, and four of the past five in Norman.
Kansas at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Kansas is a horrible team, but they actually stepped up and played Texas Tech tough in a 30-20 loss, easily covering a giant spread. But that was at home, and playing on the road is an entirely different story for KU. The Jayhawks are 8-24-1 ATS in their past 33 games on the road, and 1-4 ATS in their past five Big 12 tilts. OK State is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference battles, and they’re 9-3 ATS in their past 12 against Kansas while going 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in Stillwater. The home team has covered four straight in the series while the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 battles. The under could be the play here, going 4-1 in the past five meetings. The under has also trended favorably for both squads, going 4-0 in the past four for Kansas, and 13-3 in their past 16 road games. The under is 5-2 in the past seven for OK State, and 5-2 in their past seven at Boone Pickens Field. The public has bought into those trends, driving the opening number of 62 1/2 down to 58 1/2 as of Thursday afternoon.
Big 12 teams on a bye