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ACC Report – Week 8
By Joe Williams
Big 12 | Pac-12
2015 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-4 0-4 3-3-1 2-5
Clemson 6-0 3-0 3-3 3-3
Duke 5-1 2-0 4-2 0-6
Florida State 6-0 4-0 3-3 2-4
Georgia Tech 2-5 0-4 2-5 5-2
Louisville 2-4 1-2 4-2 2-3-1
Miami (Fla.) 4-2 1-1 4-2 2-4
North Carolina 5-1 2-0 4-2 3-3
North Carolina State 4-2 0-2 4-2 2-4
Pittsburgh 5-1 3-0 4-2 3-2-1
Syracuse 3-3 1-1 4-2 6-0
Virginia 2-4 1-1 2-3-1 4-1-1
Virginia Tech 3-4 1-2 3-4 4-3
Wake Forest 3-4 1-3 3-4 3-3-1
Clemson at Miami-Florida (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tigers opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and the line has move up to 6 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The total has also moved from an opening line of 54 1/2 to as much as 56 or 56 1/2 depending on the shop. It’s a curious move considering the ‘under’ has been the overwhelming trend for each side. The under is 8-0 in Clemson’s past eight against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 in their past five road games. The under is also 9-3 in their past 12 games on grass, and 11-4 in their past 15 overall. In addition, the under is 12-4 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home mark. For Miami, the under is 9-1 in their past 10 games in the ACC, 9-3 in their past 12 games overall and a perfect 5-0 in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark. Clemson has failed to cover in seven of their past eight conference games while Miami has covered each of their two ACC games to date. These teams are meeting for the first time since Oct. 2, 2010, when the Hurricanes knocked off the Tigers 30-21 in Death Valley.
North Carolina State at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
N.C. State hits the road for Wake, a short jaunt from the Triangle to the Triad of North Carolina. The Wolfpack, favored by 10 points, have had a terrible time with the Demon Deacons over the years, going 0-9 ATS in their past nine trips to Winston-Salem. The home team has cashed in 14 of the past 16 meetings in this series, too. However, N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine games overall. They are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing record, however. The Deacs are 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up loss. The under has been the trend for both sides, going 4-1 in N.C. State’s past five, and 6-2-1 in their past nine ACC contests. For Wake, the under is 11-3-1 in their past 15 home games, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. The under is also 5-0 in Wake’s past five at home against a team with a winning road mark.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse (ESPNU, 12:00p.m. ET)
The surprising Panthers roll into Syracuse for a battle against the Orange, harkening back to the days of the Big East. Pitt has rolled in this series in recent years, at least against the number, going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Syracuse. The favorite is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall. The Panthers have been equally good against the spread lately, going 5-0 ATS in their past five road trips and 4-1 ATS in the past five inside the ACC. They’re also 4-1 ATS in the past five overall. Syracuse is coming off a disappointing multi-OT loss at Virginia last weekend, and they’re just 1-5 ATS in their past six following a straight-up loss. One trend to watch closely is the over, which is 8-3-1 in Pittsburgh’s past 12 overall, and 5-2-1 in their past eight in the ACC. The over is also a perfect 6-0 in Syracuse’s six games this season, although it needed help last week with overtimes. And the over is 4-0 in the past four at the Carrier Dome.
Boston College at Louisville (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Boston College limps into this one, coming off a sound beating in Clemson last weekend. The Eagles defense was trampled for 34 points after allowing a total of 33 points in their first six games. However, the competition was obviously much better, too. The Eagles still earned a backdoor cover with a late touchdown, and they’re now 2-1-1 ATS over the past four. Louisville had a modest two-game win streak halted at Florida State, but they’re still a respectable 3-1 ATS over the past four games. This line opened at nine and quickly moved down to 7 1/2, and the total hovers around 37. The under had been the play for BC and their staunch defense until last weekend, and the under is 3-1 in Louisville’s past four until an over last week, too.
Virginia at North Carolina (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
UVA hits the road for Chapel Hill to face UNC in a key battle for the Heels. The Cavs picked up a triple-overtime win against Syracuse, but they haven’t had a ton of success following success with more success. The Cavs are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games following a straight-up win. The Heels have covered four of their past five ACC games, four of the past five overall and they’re 10-4 ATS in their past 14 after a cover. The favorite has also cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series, with the Cavaliers going 0-5 ATS in the past five clashes. The over might be worth a look, as it is 4-0-1 in UVA’s past five overall, although the under is 4-1-1 in the past six road games and 8-2-1 in their past 11 ACC games. The over is 8-3 in UNC’s past 11 against a losing team, although the under is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings at Kenan and 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings overall in this series.
Duke at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
In previous years a Virginia Tech win would have been expected, but these are different Blue Devils over the past couple of seasons. They play hard, have had losses to personnel and actually have reloaded. This line opened with Va. Tech favored by 3 1/2, but has moved down to 2 1/2. The Blue Devils have had two weeks to prepare for the game, and they are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. The Blue Devils are also 9-2 ATS in their past 11 against a team with a losing record, and 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a losing home mark. Duke is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 ACC games, too. For the Hokies, they have a 4-9 ATS mark in their past 13 ACC games. The underdog is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is the dominant trend for both sides, going 11-2 in Duke’s past 13 ACC games, and 17-5 in their past 22 games overall. The under is 10-2 in Virginia Tech’s past 12 ACC games, although the over is 5-2 in their past seven at Lane Stadium. The head-to-head trend has the under 4-1 in the past five in Blacksburg, and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.
Florida State at Georgia Tech (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Florida State takes its show on the road to face a very disappointing Georgia Tech side. The Yellow Jackets opened the season with two convincing wins against lesser opponents, and followed it up with a five-game losing skid that doesn’t look to stop when the Seminoles pay a visit. FSU opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and that number quickly jumped to 6 1/2. The number seems rather low despite the fact FSU is 0-4-2 ATS in the past six meetings against the Ramblin’ Wreck, and 0-3-2 ATS in their past five trips to Atlanta. And while the underdog is 4-0-2 ATS in the past six meetings, sometimes trends are made to be broken. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and Georgia Tech has not really shown they’re making strides to stem the tide of losing.