ALEX SMART
NBA FIVE PACK -Three Sides/Two Totals
NBA | Nov 04 7:05 pm
Wizards vs Spurs
The Wizards defense has under performed so far this season, and thats not a good omen vs a Spurs side that in the recent past has really clobbered terrible defensive team that allow 103+ or more points per game as is evident by covering 16 of their L/20 opportunities under these perimeters winning SU by an average of 15.9 ppg. Also from a trend stand point the Spurs have covered 13 of their L/17 on the road with a total of between 200 and 204.5 ppg. Meanwhile, Washington has failed to cover 13 of their L/17 after two straight games of allowing 100 or more points,and have lost SU by an average of 5.8 ppg. The Wizards have won 2 of 3 games, but Im not really impressed with their play, and much more impressed by the Spurs 3-1 mark and strong overall play. My own numbers tell me the line should be closer to -6.5 to -7 favoring the Spurs, so according to this and current form of both teams Im estimating we have value on the line.
Play on the San Antonio Spurs 1 unit reg selection
NBA | Nov 04 7:05 pm
Wizards vs Spurs
The Spurs have a boatload full of offensive talent, but know very well that defense wins championships and have been really paying attention to that here early in their campaign. The Spurs have held their L/2 opponents to 35.7% and 36% shooting and in their L/3 games( all wins) have allowed 75, 87, and 84 points respectively and are more than capable of slowing down the host Wizards tonight. The Spurs in their L/17 road games with a total of between 200 and 204.5 ppg have seen , an average of 198 ppg go on the board.
San Antonio is 13-4 on the under as a road favorite of 6 or less points with the average combined score of those tilts coming in at 193.2 ppg. Washington in their L/17 games following allowing 100 or more points in two straight games, have seen an average of 193 combined points scored.
Im betting Spurs control the pace here, and Wizards join in and try to correct their previous defensive efforts.
Play UNDER the set Total 1 unit reg selection
NBA | Nov 04 8:05 pm
Bucks vs 76ers
Philadelphia (-0-3) played the Cleveland Cavs tough last time out and lost by only 7 points. This young group, has some talent, and will get better with time. Tonight their young legs will be fresh enough to run with a broken down Milwaukee unit that is dealing with a injuries and defensive difficulties. The Bucks(1-3) really don’t deserve to be 10 point plus favorites against anybody right now , not even the lowly Sixers. Note: The Bucks won last time out, but have been a bad bet of late, in their follow up game as they are just 6-21 ATS L/27 after 1 or more consecutive victories. the Bucks are also just 18-34 ATS L/52 as a 9.5 to 12 point home favorite. Long term, Philly is 60-33 ATS as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. I know some of these trends do not seem pertinent , considering the teams have changed personnel and matchup scenarios are different, but in contrast shows NBA dog/ fav anomalies and must be respected. Also my current line estimates the Bucks to be 6 to 7 point chalk, and thus according to my own data we have value on the line.
Play on the 76ers to cover 1 unit reg selection
NBA | Nov 04 8:05 pm
Rockets vs Magic
Orlando is a team I have on my radar, as a value team to get behind early in this campaign. I truly believe they are one good player away from being a play off contender. For now they are undervalued and under appreciated.The Magic held Washington to 88 points in their opener , and played a run and gun affair with Oklahoma City , 139-136 and cover as 7.5 point home dogs, and lost a 92-87 at Chicago, and have the legs to stay close vs a veteran Houston group that has allowed 105 or more points in 4 straight games. Im betting the Rockets after a upset win vs Oklahoma City last time out will be in a letdown mode and come out here lethargically which will help keep the Magic in this tilt til the end.
Play on the Orlando Magic 1 unit reg selection
NBA | Nov 04 8:05 pm
Rockets vs Magic
My own numbers suggest this Total should be closer to 201, thus according to my own data we have value taking an under stance here. Some long term trends also suggest a score that stays on the low side of the number.
Orlando is 23-7 L/30 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the last few seasons with a combined average of 201.5 ppg scored. Houston 17-6 UNDER L/23 in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points with 202 ppg going on the scoreboard. The Magic are 21-9 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 . The Magic have also seen the under go 17-7 L/24 as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points with an average combined score of 193.3 ppg getting scored.
Play UNDER the set Total 1 unit reg selection