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Reply To: NCAA Week 10 • Previews, Articles, Info • Saturday 11/7/15

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2015 college football

Top 13 games

Duke has to bounce back from loss last week, when Miami ran kick back for TD with 8-lateral circus after Blue Devils had taken lead with 0:06 to play. Underdogs won last three series games SU; Duke won 27-25 in last visit here, just its second win in last eight visits to Chapel Hill. Sverage total in last four series games: 59.5. Tar Heels won seven games in row since 17-13 loss to South Carolina; they’re 2-1 as home favorites.

Penn State won/covered five of last six games with Northwestern; they lost 29-6 (-11) at home to Wildcats LY. PSU is 0-2 in true road games this year, losing 27-10/38-10 at Temple/Ohio State. Wildcats lost two of last three games, allowing 35.3 ppg after 5-0 start. Big 14 home favorites are 7-10 vs spread. Four of last five Penn State games stayed under total; last three Wildcat games went over.

Washington won last two games with Utah 34-15/31-14, but last meeting was in ’12. Huskies are 2-3 in last five games but hammered Arizona LW 49-3, running for 201 yards. 7-1 Utah lost last road game at USC; they ran for only 115 ypg last three weeks. Last five Washington games went under total; four of last six Utah games went over. Pac-12 home favorites are 9-11 against the spread.

TCU is 5-0 in Big X, winning road games 52-45/45-21; Horned Frogs are 1-2 vs Oklahoma State, beating them 42-9 LY, losing 24-10/36-14 here in 2012-13. 8-0 Cowboys won 70-53 in Lubbock LW, giving up 480 PY; three of their five Big X wins are by 7 or less poits. Three of last four TCU games stayed under total; three of last four OSU games went over. Big X home underdogs are 4-5 vs spread.

Clemson lost last three games with Florida State by average 41-23 score; Seminoles covered five of last seven series games- underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen. Tigers scored 114 points in winning road games last two weeks; they’ve gained 532+ TY in last four. Clemson is 24-18 as a home favorite under Swinney, 2-2 this year. Seminoles are 2-5 vs spread in last seven tries as a dog. ACC home favorites are 8-13 vs spread.

Since 2006, Navy is 23-9 vs spread as a road underdog; 6-1 Middies’ one loss was 41-24 at Notre Dame- their other road game was 28-18 win at UConn. Memphis ran ball for 480 yards in last two games; they’ve given up 41+ points three times this yearFour of last five Navy games, three of last four Tiger games stayed under total. AAC home favorites are 5-7 against the spread this season.

Alabama won last three games with LSU: 20-13/38-17/21-17; favorites are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. LSU is 5-2 in last seven visits here; Saban was Tigers’ coach for much of that. Tigers scored 11.2 ppg in last five series games; they’ve run ball for 211+ yards in every game this year, but Georgia (193 YR) is only team this year to run for more than 132 yards against Alabama. Since ’06, LSU is 5-8 as a road underdog.

Oregon survived wild 61-55 OT game in Tempe LW; Ducks lost last two home games, allowing 62-45 points to Utah/Wazzu. Oregon won its last five games with Cal, scoring 59-55-59 points last three years. Bears lost last three games after a 5-0 start, allowing 32.3 ppg; they covered six of last seven tries as a road underdog. Last five Cal games stayed under the total; four of last six Oregon games went over.

6-2 Pitt’s last six games were all decided by 7 or less points; underdogs are 8-0-1 vs spread in Panthers’ last nine games with Notre Dame. Irish are 4-3 in last seven visits here, losing 28-21 in last visit in ’13. ND won tough game at 7-1 Temple LW, they’ve gained 437+ TY in every game so far this year, winning road games by 7-4 with 24-22 loss at #1 Clemson. Four of lst five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

Underdogs covered last three Arkansas-Ole Miss games; Hogs lost by 10 in last visit here- they’re 5-4 as road dog under Bielema, 2-0 this season, winning SU at Tennessee, covering at Alabama. Rebels are 11-6-1 as HF under Freeze, 3-1 this year. Hogs ran for 213+ yards in four of five SEC games, Alabama being the exception. Last six Ole Miss games, five of last seven Arkansas tilts stayed under total.

Underdogs won last two Texas A&M-Auburn games SU; Aggies won on road LY 41-38 (+23); Tigers (+13) won 45-41 at A&M the year before. Aggies allowed 247 rushing ypg last three games; they’re 3-2 in SEC tilts, winning home games by 13-7. A&M is 9-14 as home fave under Sumlin. Auburn is 1-4 in SEC, allowing 54-27 points in losing its last two games. SEC home favorites are 10-10 vs spread.

Washington State let Stanford off the hook in rain last week; they’ve won by 21-17 points this season when they’re favored- four of their last five games were decided by 7 or less points. Coogs lost last three games with Arizona State by 31-34-39 points, giving up 51 ppg. ASU is 4-0 when they allow 23 or less points- they gave up 34+ in all four losses, giving up 34-61 points in losing last two games, to Utah/Oregon.

8-0 Michigan State has road wins by 13-7-4 points; Spartans won last two games with Nebraska, 27-22/41-28. Huskers lost four of last five games; five of their six losses are by 5 or less points- their three wins are all by 10+. Last three Nebraska games went over total; State is 16-5-1 as a road favorite since 2008, but 0-2 this year- they’ve won ’em all, but not impressively. Big 14 home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.

Rest of card………

— Underdogs covered six of last seven Illinois-Purdue games; visitor won last three games SU. Illini lost last three games; they’re 0-3 on road, with losses by average of 35-11. Big 14 home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.

— FAU won five of last six games with Western Kentucky, winnng last two 45-38/37-28. underdogs won last three meetings SU. Hilltoppers are 7-2; their last five wins are all by 25+ points.

— West Virginia lost last four games, allowing 44.8 ppg- last two games, they allowed 532 rushing yards. WVa lost to TexasTech last two years, 37-34/37-27. Tech lost last two games, allowing 63-70 points.

— Georgia lost three of last four games, didn’t scored TD in last two; four of their last five games stayed under. Dawgs won last five games against Kentucky (63-31/59-17 last two). Wildcats lost last three overall, by 3-26-31 points.

— UL-Lafayette beat Georgia State 34-31/35-21 last two years; Cajuns are 0-3 on road vs I-A teams, losing by 7-29-10 points. Last three ULL games went over total. Panthers lost four of their last five games.

— Home side won last three Iowa-Indiana games; Hawkeyes lost 24-21 in last visit here. Iowa is 3-0 on road, allowing 11 ppg with wins by 30-4-14 points. Hoosiers lost last four games, allowed 107 pts in last two.

— East Carolina (-17) beat South Florida 28-17 LY; running ball for 231 yards; Pirates lost three of last four games, are -10 in turnovers their last eight games. USF won three of last four games, losing to Navy LW.

— Florida had big rivalry win over Georgia LW; Gators are 17-1 in last 18 games with Vanderbilt- they won/covered last four visits here. Vandy is 1-4 in SEC, scoring 10 ppg, with three losses by 17 or less points.

— Charlotte lost its last six games, losing 44-10/34-10 in last two; 49ers are struggling in first year in I-A. FIU lost four of last six games, but won last two home games, by 40-29 points.

— Louisville won four of last five games after 1-4 start, winning last two games by total of 4 points; Cardinals won four of last five vs Syracuse, winning last two played here, 27-10/10-9.

— Cincinnati won last five games with Houston, allowing 37.2 ppg; they allowed 41 ppg in three road games, losing last two by 7-14. Houston is 8-0, winning its last four games by 21+ points.

— Akron beat UMass 30-6/14-13 last two years; underdogs covered two of three series games. Zips scored 25+ points in two I-A wins, 12 or less in five losses. UMass lost last four games, allowing 36.5 ppg.

— Eastern Michigan lost last seven games, allowing 44+ points in last six games; Eagles lost last four games with Miami; teams last met in 2010. Miami lost its last eight games, scoring 14 or less in five of last six.

— Michigan won six of last seven games; their last two were decided by total of seven points. Wolverines (+1.5) lost 26-24 at Rutgers LY, with Scarlet Knights having edge in total yardage, 476-336.

— Air Force won eight of last nine games with Army (7-2 vs spread); AF covered six of last nine series games played here. Air Force won easily in Hawai’i LW; Army had week off. Air Force is 3-0 at home this year, 2-1 as home favorite, winning by 28-14-21 points.

— Boston College won six of last eight games with NC State, winning all five played here (four by 17+ points). Eagles lost last five games overall, scoring 9.6 ppg. Wolfpack lost three of their last four games.

— Texas State won last two games with New Mexico State, 66-28/37-29; Bobcats ran for 733 yards in those games- they’re 1-5 vs I-A teams this year. 1-7 Aggies won their first game LW, 55-48 over Idaho.

— Tulane lost its last four games, allowing 40.8 ppg; they beat UConn 12-3 LY (-3.5), holding Huskies to 217 TY. UConn lost five of its last seven games; six of its eight games stayed under total.

— Kansas is awful, losing all eight games (2-6 vs spread), losing all three road games by average of 41-12. Texas is 2-3 in Big X games, with wins 24-17/23-9- all five of those games stayed under the total.

— Dogs covered four of last six Colorado State-Wyoming tilts; State won last two years 45-31/52-22. Four of Rams’ last five games went over the total. Wyoming is 1-8 this season; four of its last five stayed under.

— Stanford won last seven games, escaping Wazzu with 30-28 win LW; they won last two games with Colorado 48-0/48-7, but last meeting was in ’12. Buffs lost four of last five; last three were decided by 7 or less.

— Tulsa won four of last five games with Central Florida, but lost 31-7 to Knights LY. UCF is 0-9, losing last two games by combined 111-17. Four of last five Tulsa games stayed under; over is 4-1 in UCF’s last 5.

— Utah State beat New Mexico 28-21/45-10 last two years; they’re 4-1 in MW- all five were decided by 15+ points. Lobos allowed 220+ yards on ground in four of last five games, but won three of the five.

— USC won four of last five games with Arizona, but none of five was decided by more than 7 points. Wildcats lost 38-31/48-41 last two trips here. Arizona is 2-4 in Pac-12; three of four losses were by 26+ points.

— Underdogs covered four of last five Tennessee-South Carolina games; Vols won last two years, 45-42/23-21. Four of Tennessee’s five games in SEC were decided by 7 or less pts. Carolina is 1-3 vs spread on road.

— Oklahoma won its three games since Texas loss by an average score of 60-11; Sooners won last 11 games with Iowa State (8-3 vs spread). State is 2-3 in Big X; all five games were decided by 18+ points.

— Underdogs covered six of last seven UCLA-Oregon State tilts; State is 3-2 in last five meetings, last of which was in ’12. Bruins allowed 426+ TY in each of last five games. Pac-12 home underdogs are 2-5 vs spread.

— Wisconsin (-10) hammered Maryand 52-7 LY, running for 311 yards; Badgers won last four games, but last week was only second time in ’15 they ran for 200+ yards. Terps lost last five games; average of 37-18.

— Louisiana Tech won three of last four games with North Texas; they won 42-21 LY. Tech won five of last six games, with loss at Miss State of SEC. 1-7 UNT got first win last week; they’re 1-3 as road dogs.

— Troy lost five of last six games, allowing 479 rushing yards last two weeks. Trojans lost last four games with UL-Monroe, losing by 12-26 in last two here. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

— Hawai’i fired its coach this week, so they’re in disarray. Home team won last five Hawai’i-UNLV games; Warriors lost last two visits here, 39-37/40-20. Rebels are 0-3 at home this year against I-A opponents.

— Tex-San Antonio is 1-7, losing last three games while allowing 32 ppg; three of Roadrunners’ last four games stayed under. Old Dominion gave up 96 points in losing last two games- their last three went over.

— Home side won both Marshall-Middle Tennessee tilts; Herd lost two years ago 51-49 here, won 49-24 LY. Marshall won its last seven games, last five by 16+ points. MTSU lost four of last five games- they allowed 45.7 ppg in last three games.

— Ohio State is back to Jones at QB after Miller’s off-field issues; they won last two games with Minnesota, 31-24/52-10, both in Minnesota. Gopher coaches screwed up end of Michigan game LW; they won two of three road games this year.

— Miami had dramatic win at Duke LW, despite 23 penalties in game for 194 yards; they allowed 440+ TY in five of last six games, lost four of last five with Virginia, with average total in last three games, 65.0.

— South Alabama allowed 85 points in losing last two games; Jags (-4) won 34-10 at Idaho LY, running for 233 yards. Vandals led 23 at half at New Mexico State LW, lost 55-48, ending 2-game winning streak.