Undefeated Panthers getting no respect from betting public
By Andrew Avery
This week, we talk to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports about the action coming in on some of Sunday’s biggest NFL matchups.
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers – Open: +2.5, Move: +3
In one of the biggest contests on Sunday’s board, the undefeated Carolina Panthers opened as 2.5-point home underdogs with the Pack in town.
The Packers enter the week off a dreadful performance against the Denver Broncos one week ago. The exceptional Broncos defense held Green Bay to just 140 total yards – its lowest total in two years.
Despite the fact that Panthers are unbeaten, they’re tabbed as home dogs for the first time since Week 11 of last season (+2.5 versus Atlanta) and action is still backing the visitors.
“We opened this game Packers -2.5 and with steady action coming in on the Packers to cover, we went to our current number of Packers -3 with over 75 percent of the action on Pack to cover the spread,” Stewart.
St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -2.5, Move: -1.5
Todd Gurley has basically taken the league by storm thanks to four-straight games with at least 125 yards rushing. Many are calling Gurley the best running back in the game and have compared him to Adrian Peterson, so it will be entertaining to watch the two on the field Sunday.
Perhaps somewhat quietly, the Vikings have gotten out to a 5-2 SU record and are the second-best ATS team in the league at 6-1.
Unsurprisingly, this game produced great two-way action early in the week before Sharp money came on in on one of the sides.
“We opened the Vikings as 2.5-point faves at home and we saw dead-even action at that number,” Stewart. “We then took some sharp action that we respected enough to move to Rams +1.5 as they are now seeing over 50 percent of the action to cover.”
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers – Open: +5, Move: +7.5
The disaster in San Francisco has culminated with quarterback Blaine Gabbert getting the start over Colin Kaepernick in Sunday’s game and tight end Vernon Davis being shipped off to Denver prior to the trade deadline.
The Falcons haven’t been much better of late and have lost two of their last three games overall and have failed to cover the spread in any of their last four heading into Sunday’s contest.
Turmoil doesn’t yield a ton of confidence from football bettors and the Niners’ situation is no different.
“We opened the Falcons as 5-point favorites on the road and saw nothing but action come in on the Falcons to cover that number (over 90 percent),” Stewart says. “We have since moved to Falcons -7.5 but are still seeing the majority of the action come in on Atlanta to cover (over 90 percent). I can see us moving up to Falcons -8.5 or higher before kickoff.”
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +3, Move: +6
Many left Payton Manning and the Broncos for dead when they hosted the Green Bay Packers one week ago, but thanks to a 29-10 win and proof that this team is indeed for real, the betting community is back on good terms with Manning.
The fact that the Broncos are visiting the struggling Colts certainly helps, however. Indy hasn’t beaten a team outside of the dreadful AFC South and have lost three straight heading into Week 9.
“We opened the Broncos as 3-point favorites on the road in the house that Payton built in Indy, and with the strong Denver defense and faltering Colts offense, we have since moved this line to Denver -6 with them getting over 75 percent of the action to cover,” says Stewart. “Another game where we might see this number jump come kickoff.”
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +3
This week’s Sunday nighter pits the Eagles at the Cowboys in an NFC East matchup where the underdog has covered the spread in the past six contests.
The Cowboys head in riding a five-game losing streak and have gone just 1-4 ATS in those games, though they did cover in last week’s 13-12 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Someone in the division needs to pull away from the pack and an Eagles win will certainly help matters as it will move them to .500.
Predictably, there is solid two-way action on this matchup but a slight edge to the visitors as this one has stuck on the key number since post.
“We opened the Eagles as 3-point faves on the road in Dallas and have not moved off this number as we have seen good two-way action,” Stewart said. “We did adjust the juice on the line moving from Eagles -3 (-105) to -3 (-110) and the Cowboys +3 (-115) to Cowboys +3 (-110). The Eagles are seeing over 65 percent of the action to cover the 3-point spread.”