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Philadelphia (+2) 23 DETROIT 25
After losing a game that they should have won two weeks ago against Miami, the Eagles didn’t show up for their match-up with the Bucs last week. That makes it two losses in a row but the Eagles are just a game back of the division lead in a bad NFC East. I expect a bounce back performance this week facing a Lions team that, while playing better the past two weeks since their bye, still have significant issues to deal with. Their offensive line is still not playing very well as last week Matthew Stafford was sacked four times and while they were able to generate a little more production on the ground, they still averaged just 3.8 ypr. Overall this season the Lions have been the worst rushing team in the league, averaging just 72 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 108 yards at 4.3 ypr. I’m sure Detroit will test the Eagles suddenly suspect run defense but I don’t believe they’ll be able to have consistent success.
Even though he passed the concussion protocol, word is Sam Bradford is unlikely to play so once again Mark Sanchez will start at quarterback. Sanchez was not very good last week, throwing three interceptions, and has a poor 3.8% career interception rate – but he’s not much of a downgrade from Sam Bradford. He and the Eagles passing offense should have some success against a Lions pass defense that has played better lately but on the season are allowing an average of 251 passing yards at 7.0 yps to teams that generate 240 yards at 6.6 yps.
There are situations going both ways in this game with the Lions qualifying in a 72-31-2 momentum situation while the Eagles qualify in a very good 185-115-6 bounce back situation. The Eagles are dealing with some injuries along their offensive line that may spell trouble and my model favors the Lions by 5.5 points so it’s a pass for me in what looks like a toss up.