JOE GAVAZZI
Texas Tech at Texas (-1) 7:30 ET FS1 TV
Because the Longhorns are a (-69) net AFP for the season in this matchup, there is more than 2 TDs of line value from where this line would have been opening week. As such, we look to play on a hungry Texas team who still has an outside shot at a Bowl bid with this Turkey Day victory, followed by a win at Baylor next week. If that seems improbable, consider that Texas has already beaten Oklahoma this season (24-17). With TTRR already having punched their Bowl ticket, I like the emotional edge for the Longhorns in this LHG. History agrees, as the Longhorns are 5-0 SU ATS in this series, while Texas Tech is just 2-10 ATS on the conference road. A lot to like about the TTRR now balanced and explosive offense, 46/590. But, it is a defense allowing that same amount that makes this team one that can never be trusted in a competitively priced game.