Sharps vs. Squares betting battle for the Thanksgiving Day finale
By Jason Logan
The sights, smells, and spreads of Thanksgiving Day. The holiday Thursday is one of the biggest single betting days of the year, with three NFL matchups on the board. We talk to sportsbooks in Las Vegas and offshore, getting the inside scoop on the betting action and where the lines could end up come kickoff:
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8, 45)
This NFC North rivalry is the final act of the Thanksgiving Day schedule, with the Packers opening as 8-point favorites hosting the Bears. Green Bay climbed as high as -9 before wiseguys bought back Chicago and have this spread back to its opener as of Thursday morning.
“The professionals took the +9,” says Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada. “Chicago is playing much better and Green Bay isn’t blowing anyone away. I think we’ll end up needing Chicago, with the public coming in on Green Bay.”
The Packers will hold a lot of parlay liability for sportsbooks, being the hefty favorite and one of the most public teams in the NFL. Nevada books won’t be the only ones cheering for Chicago to keep this closer than expected on Thanksgiving Day.
“Everyone seems to think that the Packers are going to come out in force on Turkey Day, as the action is 3-to-1 on Green Bay despite the big 8-point line,” Mick Sloan, lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets. “The house will be looking for Chicago and the Under in this Thanksgiving showdown.”
The total for this rivalry opened at 47.5 points and has since dropped to 45 with the forecast in Wisconsin calling for cold, wind and rain. Wiseguys have bet this one Under but the public, like it does with most primetime standalone game, will be siding with the Over.
The Cheeseheads are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings with the Bears – covering 73 percent of the time. However, the last 12 divisional hosts on Thanksgiving Day are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS, according to Marc Lawrence,
These divisional foes have gone Over the total in each of their past four clashes.