3 Plays Today as we look to bounce-back from a dud of a Friday. Let’s return to the 5-1 run prior to yesterday.
3-Unit Play. #599. Take Tennessee-Martin +10.5
over Mississippi State (Saturday @ 1pm est)
We roll with Tennessee Martin in the first pick as our models show they are on an uptick of late. You won’t notice this in their straight up record as they are 2-3 but their win at James Madison on the road speaks volumes. And, since their first game, they have improved their defensive ranking by 125 places which is important. Mississippi State should not be favored by this much over team given that they lost to top 260 Southern and beat Missouri State a top 225 team by just a few points. We like Tennessee-Martin to hang tough here and lose by 6 points this afternoon.
3-Unit Play. #515. Take Cleveland State +21.5
over Maryland (Saturday @ 7:30pm est)
Maryland is a fantastic team. Having said that, Maryland has their big tilt against North Carolina in their next game and its hard to see this team focused on this game heading into that game. Plus, this team beat Rhode Island by 23 points, is in a let down spot and only beat a similar Rider team by 10 points as well. Maryland is outside the top 200 in turnover margin and Cleveland State is a top 150 defensive team, plus, State beat a similar Rider team by 5 points and hung in nicely against top 60 SoutH Dakota State losing by 11 points. We like Cleveland State to hang here as they likely lost by 17 in a low scoring contest.
4-Unit Play. #542. Take Louisville -15
over St. Louis (Saturday @ 8pm est)
Louisville is blowing teams out and this could be one of those games where it gets ugly fast. Sure, St. Louis wants to step up against this school but having said that, you have a Louisville team that went through turmoil over the off-season with the call girl scandal and frankly, Pitino and gang are ready to lay the wood it seems on everyone. A-la Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots who wants to stick it to some people. There were those who called for Pitino’s resignation and here he is, still coaching, still winning as this team faced a similar North Florida team who was top 120 and beat them by 28 points. St. Louis is led by Jim Crews but this team has trouble scoring as they are outside the top 175 in scoring and faces a top 5 offnese to boot. Plus, this team is outside the top 200 in offensive rebounding which will be an issue this evening. We like Louisville by 20 or more this evening.