2015 NFL
Week 12
Eagles (4-6) @ Lions (3-7) — Detroit won both of its post-bye games 18-16/18-13, allowing 97 YR total (2.5 ypc); Lions are 2-3 at home- three of last four home tilts went over. Eagles lost three of last four games; win was in OT; they’ve got only two takeaways in last three games. Philly is 4-1 if it scores 24+ points, 0-5 if it doesn’t; Lions allowed 16-13 in last two games, after allowing 24+ in seven of first eight games- they won last two Thanksgiving Day games, 40-10/34-17. Eagles won seven of last eight series games, winning 30-13/35-32 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 8-5 vs spread; NFC East road teams are 4-7. Seven of ten Philly games stayed under total.
Panthers (10-0) @ Cowboys (3-7) — Dallas is 3-0 when Romo starts, 0-7 when he doesn’t; Carolina is 10-0 when Newton starts. Panthers scored 27.8 ppg in winning all four on road, winning 27-23 at Seattle, in only game on fake grass. Cowboys won last five series games; four of the five were in Charlotte; they’re 1-4 at home, beating Giants 27-26 in opener after trailing by 10 in 4th quarter. Panthers won last four visits here by 7-1-4-14 points. Teams are 1-6 the week after playing Miami. Carolina is +7 in turnovers the last two games- they turned ball over once in last three weeks. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 5-8 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 10-5. Over is 6-2 in last eight Carolina games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas tilts.
Bears (4-6) @ Packers (7-3) — Green Bay snapped 3-game skid with big win at Minnesota LW in first-place showdown; Pack (-7) won 31-23 at Chicago in season opener, despite 189 rushing yards by Chicago. Packers are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning six of last seven on frozen tundra- they crushed Bears 55-14 here LY. Green Bay is 3-2 as a home favorite, winning home games by 10-10-14-7 points, losing to Detroit. Chicago is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, covering all four road games that Cutler started- their last three losses are all by three of less points. Home side is 1-6 vs spread in NFC North games this year. Six of last seven Packer games stayed under total. Not sure if it matters, but Packers are retiring Brett Favre’s #4 jersey at halftime.
Saints (4-6) @ Houston (5-5) — Texans allowed three TDs on 36 drives, won their last three games; they’re +8 in turnovers in last five games, after being -8 in first five. Houston is tied for top in AFC South, goes back to healthy Hoyer here; they’ve started three QBs in their ten games. Saints fired DC Ryan during bye week; they lost last two games, allowed 43.3 ppg in last three; NO is 1-4 on road, with only win at Indy. Home side won all three series games; Saints lost 23-10 (+1.5) in only visit to Reliant in 2007. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing the Jets. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 5-3 on road. AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Five of last six Saints games went over total; last three Texan games stayed under.
Vikings (7-3) @ Falcons (6-4) — Atlanta lost four of last five games after 5-0 start, losing its last three games by total of seven points. Ryan threw awful pick-6 LW when Atlanta had a 21-14 lead with 10:07 left. Falcons lost 41-28 at Minnesota LY; Vikings ran for 241 yards without Peterson. Minnesota lost 30-10/24-14 in last two visits here; they covered eight games in row overall before losing to Packers LW; Vikings won their last three road games, scoring 27 ppg- they’re 3-0 as road dogs. Falcons are 1-3 as home favorites- they trailed at halftime in seven of ten games. Favorites are 0-3-2 vs spread week after playing Indy. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-5. Five of last six Falcon games stayed under total.
Rams (4-6) @ Bengals (8-2) — St Louis offense is in disarray, with injury issues on OL, so QBs are getting pummeled; they gagged away LW’s game vs 3-7 Ravens, don’t figure to do any better here vs Bengal squad that lost last two games after 8-0 start. Cincy is 3-1-1 as a home favorite; four of its last six games were decided by six or less points. Rams are 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, scoring 15 ppg on foreign soil. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; NFC West road dogs are 1-5. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread week after playing Ravens; teams are 1-8 vs spread week after playing Arizona. Seven of last nine St Louis games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total. Rams seem to play better vs better competition, but they also seem incapable of finishing off wins.
Buccaneers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5) — Underdogs are 10-0 vs spread in Colt games this season; Indy is 0-2 as home favorite- both their home wins are by three points. Tampa Bay won its last three games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six; they’re 4-1 as road underdogs, losing by 10 at Houston, 1 at Washington. Odd stat: Indy is 3-0 when backup QB Hasselbeck starts, 2-5 with Luck. Colts are 19-34 on third down in last two games. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with win in ’97- their last visit here was in ’07. NFC South road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC South favorites are 1-5. Teams are 2-6 week after playing Atlanta. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tampa Bay games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. This is fourth dome game out of six road games for Tampa Bay this year.
Giants (5-5) @ Redskins (4-6) — Washington (+3) lost 32-21 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3 Thursday game; they’ve won last four home games, scoring 31.3 ppg- four of their last five losses were by 11+ points. Giants are 12-3 in last 15 games vs Washington, winning five in row by average score of 27-12; they won last two visits here 24-17/45-14. Big Blue is 2-3 on road, with close losses at Dallas/NO; they’re 1-4 in games decided by less than 7 points. Four of last five Redskin games, three of last four Giant games went over total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Teams coming off bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 6-4 when favored. Giants won six of last seven post-bye games, covering five of last seven as a post-bye favorite.
Raiders (4-6) @ Titans (2-8) — Oakland is 4-1 when they have positive turnover ratio, 0-5 if they do not; they lost last three games, scoring 14-13 points last two weeks- they’re 2-3 on road, 0-2 as road favorites, with wins over Browns/Chargers, who are both 2-8. Titans lost seven of last eight games; they had extra prep time after Thursday tilt in Jacksonville LW. Tennessee is 0-5 at home, scoring just 10 ppg in last four home games. Tennessee won last three series games by 4-25-4 points; Raiders lost five of six visits here, with only win in ’05. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 1-4 vs spread; AFC South home dogs are 5-2. Titans lost field position by 10+ yards in three of last four games. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Oakland games; four of last five Titan games stayed under.
Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (5-5) — Third week in row on road for Buffalo, which lost late Monday in Foxboro and now travels again; QB Taylor was banged-up in 4th quarter, but finished it and is expected to play here. Buffalo is 1-5 outside its division, 3-1 in true road games, with only loss Monday night. KC won/covered last four games, all by 10+ points with turnover ratio of +12, after being -2 in first six games; Chiefs are 1-2 as home favorites- this is their first home game in five weeks. Bills are 5-0 when they allow less than 20 points, 0-5 when they allow more. Chiefs won 23-13/17-13 in Buffalo last two years; home team lost five of last seven series tilts, with four of last six series totals 36 or less. AFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-6 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 3-5.
Dolphins (4-6) @ Jets (5-5) — Miami lost three of last four games, Jets four of last five, but they beat Fish 27-14 (-2) in London in Week 4, last game before Miami fired its head coach. Home side lost last six series games; Dolphins won six of last seven visits here, winning last three by 21-20-3 points. Jets are +12 in turnovers in five wins, -13 in five losses. Dolphins ran ball for 180-248 yards in Campbell’s first two games as interim coach, but averaged only 72.5 in last four games. Miami turned ball over only twice in last three games; they’re 3-3 in true road games. Favorites are 0-3 vs spread week after playing Houston. Seven of last ten series totals were 39 or less. Three of last four Miami games stayed under total; four of last six Jet games went over.
Chargers (2-8) @ Jaguars (4-6) — Jacksonville won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) and is only game out of first in AFC South. Six of last seven Jax games were decided by 7 or less points. Chargers lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they got crushed 33-3 at home LW. In last eight games, Bolts started one drive in enemy territory, its opponents started 15. SD is 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, with only road loss by more than seven points. San Diego won last four series games, all by 18+ points; they won last two visits here 38-14/24-6- last visit here was in 2013. AFC West non-divisional road dogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Jaguars’ only TD drive last week was five years. Four of the last six Charger games stayed under total; four of last six Jax games went over.
Cardinals (8-2) @ 49ers (3-7) — Redbirds (-6.5) crushed SF 47-7 in Week 3, scoring pair of defensive TDs, picking Kaepernick off four times (+3) in their third win in last 13 games vs 49ers. Arizona lost last six visits here, with five losses by 12+ points. Cardinals won last four games overall; they’re 4-1 on road, with three wins by 14+ points- in both their losses, Arizona was -3 in turnovers. Niners lost three of last four games, losing by 17-21-16; they are 3-2 SU at home (dog in all five)- they’ve allowed 15.2 ppg at home, 35.2 ppg on foreign soil. Redbirds scored 34-39-34 points in last three games, despite having -2/-2/-1 TO ratios in those games. 49ers scored total of 39 points in last four games (three TDs on 44 drives); three of the four games stayed under. Eight of ten Arizona games went over total.
Steelers (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5) — Roethlisberger has been in NFL 12 years; this is his first game in Seattle. Pittsburgh shut Seattle out 24-0/21-0 in last two meetings; they beat ’em in Super Bowl meeting before that, so Seahawks have triple-revenge on their side. Steelers are 0-4 in last four visits here; their only win in seven trips to Seattle was in ’83. Steelers won last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they’re 2-2 on road. 1-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Foxboro, 10 in KC. Seattle won three of last four games, but two wins were over SF, third over Romo-less Dallas. Seahawks are 2-3 as home favorites, with both covers against a #2 QB. Pitt won six of last seven post-bye games; NFL-wide, teams off a bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 11-5 as underdogs.
Patriots (10-0) @ Broncos (8-2) — Long travel, short week for Patriots after 20-13 win over Buffalo Monday night. NE scored 32.8 ppg in its four road wins (1-2 as road faves); they have injury issues on OL and now WR Amendola is hurt, leaving them thin at WR. Denver won Osweiler’s first career start in Chicago LW; Broncos are 3-1 at home, allowing average of 18 ppg- they ran ball for 170 yards last week, after averaging 52 ypg in previous couple games. Home side won nine of last 11 series tilts; Patriots lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 8+ points. Five of last six series totals were 52+. Last four NE games stayed under total. Denver defense allowed only two TDs in last six red zone trips. AFC West home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 3-0.
‘Monday’
Ravens (3-7) @ Browns (2-8) — Since coming back to NFL in ’99, Cleveland is 4-0 against spread as a post-bye favorite, but lost three of last four post-bye games overall. McCown is back at QB for Cleveland; Davis backs him up after Manziel threw for 372 yards in loss at Pittsburgh before the bye, but then went off wagon in Texas during bye week. Flacco is out for year (knee) so Schaub (46-44 as NFL starter, last start in ’13) gets first Ravens start- all ten Baltimore games have been decided by 8 or less points. Baltimore also lost Forsett in last game; they’re 1-4 on road and were favored in three of five games. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides. Cleveland lost last five games, scoring 11.3 ppg in last four after tough OT loss at home to then-undefeated Denver.