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Betting Recap – Week 12
By Daniel Dobish

Overall Notes


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 5-7-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 6-6-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-9

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bears (+8, ML +350) at Packers, 17-13
Ravens (+6, ML +220) at Browns, 33-27

The largest favorite to cover
Bengals (-9.5) vs. Rams, 31-7

Honolulu Blue and Covers

— The Detroit Lions spanked the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving for their third win and cover. After opening the season 1-7 SU/ATS, the Lions are suddenly covering on a regular basis. They face the Green Bay Packers Thursday, and they kicked off their 3-0 SU/ATS streak with an 18-16 win at Lambeau Field Nov. 15. Can they do it again Thursday night?

Feeling Minnesota

— The Minnesota Vikings have been covering kings, as they improved to 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with their road victory over the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings doubled up the Falcons 20-10, and improved to 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road, covering their past five. They will be on the road again in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals in a potential playoff preview.


— The AFC and NFC did battle in four games in Week 12, with the AFC going 3-1 SU/ATS. The Seattle Seahawks helped the NFC save face with a 39-30 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cincinnati Bengals posted a win and cover against the St. Louis Rams, 31-7, and the Houston Texans cruised past the New Orleans Saints by a 24-6 count. The Indianapolis Colts also rallied from a 12-6 halftime deficit to turn back the previously red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

— The ‘under’ was 3-1 in four AFC vs. NFC matchups in Week 12, and the ‘under’ is still 25-12-1 (67.6%) in the past 38 over the past nine weeks. For the season, the ‘under’ is 29-14-2 (68.1%) in intraconference matchups this season.

Total Recall

— After the ‘under’ went 17-9-2 in two weeks prior, the ‘over’ finally edged the ‘under’ 8-7-1 in Week 12, helped out by the Sunday day games. The ‘over’ was 4-1 in the Thanksgiving Day games, Sunday night game and Monday night game, while the ‘under’ was 6-4-1 in the 11 Sunday afternoon contests. In the five divisional games, the ‘under’ eeked out a 3-2 advantage.

— The Monday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs games had the lowest totals on the board at 41. However, each game comfortable hit the ‘over’. The second-lowest total, the battle between the Bengals and Rams (42) ended up going just ‘under’, and that was mostly due to the ineptitude of the Rams offense. The Bengals were able to roll up 31 points at home.

— The Vikings have been on fire with the ‘under’ this season, going 4-0-1 over their past five games and 9-1-1 in their 11 outings overall. The Falcons have also had an 8-2-1 ‘under’ mark, so it’s no surprise their game went well under the total. The ‘under’ is also 8-3 for the Packers, Rams and Steelers through 11 games.

— The ‘over’ was 2-1 in two primetime games in Week 12, and 4-1 if you consider the two Thanksgiving afternoon games. Officially, the ‘over’ is still just 12-21-1 (36.3%) through 34 games under the lights. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

— Bengals TE Tyler Eifert suffered a stinger in Sunday’s blowout win of the Rams, and RB Jeremy Hill (ankle) checked out due to an ankle issue.

— Browns QB Josh McCown (shoulder) was forced out of Monday’s loss against the Ravens due to a shoulder injury, as QB Austin Davis took over in the fourth quarter, not QB Johnny Manziel.

— Cardinals RBs Andre Ellington (foot) and Chris Johnson (fractured leg) each left Sunday’s win at San Francisco, and CJ2K is expected to be sidelined indefinitely.

— Chiefs LB Justin Houston (knee) suffered a sprained knee in the team’s victory against the Bills.

— Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw (wrist) is done for the season due to a wrist injury, his third straight season ending the year on the Reserve/Injured list (I-R).

— Cowboys QB Tony Romo (clavicle) suffered a fractured left clavicle on Thanksgiving against the Panthers, and he is likely done for the season.

— Dolphins WR Rishard Matthews (ribs) sustained fractured ribs in the team’s loss at N.Y. Jets, and he is likely to be sidelined for Week 13.

— 49ers TE Garrett Celek (ankle) was carted off in the loss to Arizona, and he has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain.

— Jaguars WR Allen Hurns (concussion) was carted off late in the team’s game against the Chargers, and he is unlikely to play in Week 13.

— Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (knee) suffered a knee bruise in the teams Sunday Night loss at Denver, but early indications are that he does not have ligament damage and should be able to return this season.

— Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (head) “self reported” headaches in the fourth quarter in Seattle after a hit to the head, but reports say he does not have a concussion. TE Heath Miller (rib) also checked out with a rib injury.

Looking Ahead

— The Packers have revenge on their mind after an 18-16 setback at home to the Lions in Week 10. The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games, and 40-19 ATS in their past 59 inside the division, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall. The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games, but they covered on Thanksgiving in a laugher against the Eagles, and they’re 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on Thursday. However, they’re also 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against teams with a winning record, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven divisional games. The favorite is still 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the Packers are 13-6 ATS in the past 19 in this series.

— The Cardinals head east to battle the Rams under the dome. Arizona has built their record on picking on the weak, going 17-6 ATS in their past 23 against losing teams, while also going 13-6 ATS in their past 19 away from home. The Rams are just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 against NFC foes, but they are an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine at home against teams with a winning road mark. However, they’re 0-3-1 ATS in their past four, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning overall record. Arizona has dominated the series, going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to the Lou. The ‘under’ is also 5-2 in the past seven battles in the Edward Jones Dome.

— The Falcons head south on Interstate 75 to battle the Buccaneers. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in their psat seven, 0-5 ATS in their past five aginst losing teams and just 1-4 ATS in their past five divisional games. Despite Sunday’s loss in Indy, the Bucs are still 5-2 ATS in their past seven, and they have covered four of their past five against divisional foes. It might be a defensive slog, as the ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in Atlanta’s past six divisional games, and 5-1 in Tampa’s past six in the NFC South. The ‘under’ is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Raymond James Stadium.

— The Bengals are red-hot against the number, going 5-0 ATS in their past five away from home, and 9-1-1 ATS in theri past 11 overall. They’re also 4-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. Cincinnati heads up Interstate 71 to Cleveland where the Browns lost a heartbreaker on a blocked field goal with no time left in regulation. The Browns are in a freefall, going 0-5 ATS in their past five, although they are 7-2 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a winning road record. As of Tuesday AM, the line is ‘OFF’, as the Browns have an uncertain quarterback situation. Look for Cincinnati to be a heavy road favorite, though, perhaps as many as seven or eight points. The underdog is 13-3-1 in the past 17 in this series, but Cincinnati covered a 13-point number in their 31-10 win Nov. 5 in the first meeting.

— The Jaguars hit the road for the Music City looking to stay hot against the number. They’re 4-1 ATS in their past five AFC South battles, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road. The Titans are 4-21-2 in their past 27 divisional games, and 6-19-2 ATS in their past 27 at home. Jacksonville is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings, 4-1 in their past five trips to Nashville and the ‘under’ is 4-0 in the past four in this series.

— The Broncos take on the hapless Chargers, although San Diego did find success in Week 12 in Jacksonville as a road dog. Denver is 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 divisional games, but 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing record. The Bolts are 6-16 ATS in their past 22, and 3-13 ATS in their past 16 against AFC foes. San Diego has also failed to cover in each of their past eight divisional games. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 in this series, and Denver is 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to San Diego.

— The white-hot Chiefs have covered five straight, while the Raiders have had a bit of a backslide lately, losing in Nashville last week and in Detroit the week before. Kansas City has dominated this series in recent seasons, going 9-3 ATS in their past 12 trips to the Black Hole, with the road team 18-6 ATS in the past 24 meetings. The ‘under’ is also 15-5 in the past 20 meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 in Oaktown.

— The Panthers look for more NOLA magic under the dome Sunday. The Cats are an impressive 12-2 ATS in their past 14 trips to the Crescent City, and the road team has covered 21 of the past 28 in this series. Overall, the Panthers have covered five in a row on the road.

— The Cowboys have QB troubles again, while the Redskins enter the week in the top spot of the NFC East. Dallas is just 2-7 ATS in their past nine games, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven against the NFC. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, while going 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings with the Cowboys. The ‘Skins are also 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against the Pokes.