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Reply To: MLB Tuesday Service Plays 9/1/15

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#1798
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DAVE ESSLER

MLB Tuesday

Free play will be here ____________.

Mets-Phillies: I suppose if the Mets were going to be faded it’d be Niese – hard to fathom him having any value at -225 just based on what Harang CAN do on a given day. Add to that he’s thrown 101/103 pitches respectively in his last two games, and that makes the Mets not an option for me.

Cubs-Reds: This will probably be a big total and it still might not be big enough. Haren a major fly ball pitcher – and he’s allowed at least one home run in 8 straight games. Desclafani has only had one bad outing of late and has been MUCH better on the road, but Wrigley is less friendly than Great American, so I don’t see how this isn’t a high scoring game.

Pirates-Brewers: Obviously Cole is a beast – but if the Brewers were ever going to win a game Nelson is probably their best option. He’s (Nelson) been super-sporadic and comes in off a horrid game – the Brewers have hit Cole a little in limited sample sizes, but perhaps enough to consider the Brewers RL.

Arizona-Colorado: It’s usually off the table to take Kendrick at Coors Field – another one that doesn’t induce many ground ball outs, not to mention he’s coming off the DL. Clearly that’s why they’ve installed the D-Backs as -135 favorites, and typically I don’t like road favorites, in any sport, really. De La Rosa did beat Colorado in Coors this season and was hammered by them at Arizona. Hard to find a side either way – and the total of 11 is perhaps too many. Needing 12 runs to lose a bet us usually worth doing.

San Francisco-Dodgers: I do know how good Grienke is, but getting the Giants and Bumgarner at +130 in a game with a total of 5.5 is just too much to pass up – and the RL but it’s going to be pricey based on the total. Fort those that don’t know – the RL is correlated to the total. For example – a +130 team with a HIGH total is cheaper on the RL just based on probability. Good example in Tuesday’s games – the Rockies are +110 and the RL is only -145. The Giants RL is +190 or better in places.

Cleveland-Toronto: I really like Salazar in the Indians RL on Monday, and neglected to play it – it’s 2-2 as I work. Anderson has been hit around pretty hard his last handful of starts – but the Jays haven’t seen him – at all. This could be a great spot for the Indians F5 because Anderson doesn’t usually pitch deep anyway – and perhaps some sort of in-game bet.

Yankees-Red Sox: Everyone will be either on Pineda or against Porcello, and New York has had success against Porcello in limited at bats. Pineda was lit up by Houston in his first start off the DL but has handled the Red Sox with ease. I do like the under here a little, but only at 9. I just can’t bet on Pineda being “all good” and I can’t bet on Porcello throwing another 7 inning shutout.

Twins-White Sox: I bet on the Twins at home against a LHP no matter who they are playing, and it’s not like they’ve never seen Sale before. Duffey will be the wild card and in his one start at home he shut down the Indians, so I can make a great case for the Twins RL as well, albeit expensive.

Detroit-Kansas City: My guess is that everyone will line up to auto-fade the “almost no hitter” and be on the Royals, so I’d find a way not to be. Cueto has given up at least one HR (three in the last game) in his last three starts and we know the Tigers can hit when they put their minds to it. If I had to bet this game right now, I’d take the Tigers F5 because we know who has the better pen, and the Royals and under for the game.

Houston-Seattle: Of interest is the fact that Feldman has put together an August as good as anyone in baseball – a 1.33 earned run average. But, he has had a couple of high pitch count games, 110 in the last one, which might scare me at least off of -150 for sure. But, as good as Elias can be, he’s much less effective on the road – so this could go over.

Texas-San Diego: The Rangers don’t have a DH which might make people think, but Gallardo was not only in the NL for a long time but is an excellent hitter. I don’t like Cashner and HE threw 121 pitches last game, so it’s Texas and/or the over here.