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Reply To: NFL Week 13 • Previews, Articles, Info. • Sunday 12/6/15

Home Forums NFL Service Plays NFL Week 13 • Previews, Articles, Info. • Sunday 12/6/15 Reply To: NFL Week 13 • Previews, Articles, Info. • Sunday 12/6/15


2015 NFL

Week 13
Packers (7-4) @ Lions (4-7) — Detroit won its last three games, Green Bay lost four of last five, including first home loss to Detroit since 1991, just 6th win for Lions in last 30 series games. Packers lost 40-10/19-7 in last two visits here; they won 30-13 at Minnesota in only game on carpet this year. Detroit won field position by twelve yards in 18-16 win three weeks ago- neither team ran ball well. Lions held GB to 5.1 ypa. Packers are 3-2 on road, 2-2 as road faves. Detroit allowed 14.3 ppg in winning last three games, after giving up 37.3 ppg in four games before that. Seven of last eight Packer games stayed under total; five of last seven Detroit games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread.

49ers (3-8) @ Bears (5-6) – Chicago won three of last four games, covered six of last eight; they’re 1-4 at home, with only win 22-20 (+3) over Oakland. 49ers lost four of last five games; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs, losing all five games by average of 35-14- four of five went over total. 49ers lost last four visits here, by 6-10-8-31; last SF win in Windy City was an ’88 playoff game. SF scored 10.4 ppg in last five tilts; they’ve run ball for just 63 ypg in two post-bye games- they don’t have a takeaway in last three games (-4). NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 against spread; NFC West road underdogs are 1-6. Four of last five SF games, three of last four Bear games stayed under total.

Bengals (9-2) @ Browns (2-9) — Teams split series last three years; Cincinnati (-13) won first meeting 31-10 four weeks ago, one of eight NFL games this year with zero turnovers. Bengals split last eight visits here; they’re 5-1-1 as favorite this season, 1-0 on road. Cincy is 4-1 on road, winning by 20-4-13-6 points. Browns had brutal loss late Monday nite, losing on blocked FG/TD on last play of game; they’ve lost six games in row (0-5 vs spread), McCown is out for year; either Davis/Manziel will start at QB. Cleveland lost last four home games, three by 7 or less points. Last five series games were decided by 10+ points. Over is 8-3 in Cleveland games, 4-1 in last five Bengal games.

Jaguars (4-7) @ Titans (2-9) — Teams split season series last six years; Jags are 2-5 in last seven visits here, but won 19-13 (-3) in Thursday night game vs Titans two weeks ago- Jags’ only TD drive was five yards. Tennessee lost its last 11 games at home, with three of five home losses this year by 3 or less points- they lost nine of last ten overall (1-4 vs spread in last five). Jax covered four of last five games; their only road loss by more than seven points was in Foxboro. Jaguars are 3-2 as road underdogs this year. Last four series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-23-2 vs spread. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Titan games; five of last seven Jax games went over.

Texans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6) — Houston won last four games, allowing 8.8 ppg; they’re tied for 1st in division, would be Wild Card if playoffs started today. Texans gave up two TDs on last 46 drives; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs. Bills lost three of last four home games; they’re 1-2 as home faves. Houston won last three series games, by 21-12-6 points; they won two of last three visits here. Texans have yet to run ball for 100+ yards on road; they outscored last five foes 67-20 in second half. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8 vs spread, 6-5 on road. Last four Houston games stayed under total; four of last six Buffalo games went over.

Ravens (4-7) @ Dolphins (4-7) — In last two games, Miami ran ball 23 times for just 82 yards; offensive coordinator got fired Monday- expect them to run ball more in this game. Baltimore allowed only 81.5 rushing ypg in last four games. Dolphins lost four of last five games, are 1-2 at home- they were outgained by 100 ypg in last three games. Ravens won three of last four games after scoring TD on blocked FG for walk-off win late Monday nite; they’re 2-4 on road, the other win coming in OT at Pittsburgh. Favorites are 2-3 vs spread week after playing Jets; dogs are 2-0 the week after playing Cleveland. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC North road dogs are 5-5-1.

Panthers (11-0) @ Saints (4-7) — Carolina won five of last seven games against New Orleans, beating Saints 27-22 (-10) at home in Week 3, Panthers averaged 9.8 ypa in that game. Carolina won two of last three visits here, with last four totals 44+ here. Saints lost last three games, allowing 35 ppg; they were outscored 47-7 in second half of those games- firing their DC didn’t help in 24-6 loss at Houston last week, Texans ran ball for 165 yards. Carolina is last unbeaten team; they covered seven of last eight games. Four of Panthers’ five road wins are by 11+ points. Over is 7-2 in last nine Carolina games, 5-2 in last five Saint games. New Orleans split last four home games, despite scoring 32.8 ppg- last three at home went over.

Seahawks (6-5) @ Vikings (8-3) — Seattle has led in 4th quarter of every game this year; they’re on road for first time in five weeks- three of its five road games (2-3) were decided by 3 or less points. Minnesota won six of last seven games, covered nine of last ten; they’re 4-1 at home, losing last home game to Packers. Vikes are 7-0 when allowing less than 20 points; Seattle scored 21 ppg in first five road games. Seahawks didn’t allow TD in its last two road games. Teams are 3-6 the week after playing Atlanta. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 9-5 against the spread; NFC West road teams are 4-9. Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total; under is 3-0-1 in last four Viking games. 11 of 13 series totals were 44+.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Rams (4-7) — Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both its losses, one of which was 24-22 (-6.5) at home to Rams in Week 4, Rams ran ball for 164 yards, were outgained 447-328 n their first win over Cards in last four tries- Arizona lost two of last three visits here. Wheels fell off for Rams, losing four in row, scoring an average of 12.8 ppg- they’ve got five TDs on last 52 drives, turned ball over seven times on 25 drives last two games. St Louis is 2-5 as a dog, 1-1 at home- they’re 3-2 SU at home. Redbirds won last five games, last three by 7 or less points; Arizona is just 13-43 on third down in last three series games. Three of last four Cardinal tilts went over the total; six of last seven Ram games stayed under.

Falcons (6-5) @ Buccaneers (5-6) — Atlanta outgained Bucs 496-290 in first meeting, but was -4 in turnovers in 22-20 (-7) loss in Week 8; Falcons lost five of its last six games after a 5-0 start- Ryan has thrown huge INTs in last two games. Falcons are 2-2 in last four visits here- they scored 26 points (two TDs/21 drives) in two games on natural grass. Tampa is 4-1 when it allows 20 or less points; they’re 2-3 at home, winning two of last three. Bucs are 16-29 on third down last two games. Teams are 2-6-2 vs spread week after playing Indy, 3-7 after playing Minnesota. Seven of last eight series totals were 43+; last five Atlanta games stayed under total. Atlanta has turned ball over 19 times in its last seven games (-10).

NJ Jets (6-5) @ NJ Giants (5-6) — Both sides call this stadium home; technically this is Giants home game, but I’m quoting home stats both ways here. Giants won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points- average total last four series games, 57.5. Jets are +14 in turnovers in their six wins, -13 in five losses; they’re 4-2 in Swamp this year- they covered one of last five games. Giants are tied for first in NFC East despite being 5-6; red flag was going 2-3 in five-game stretch where they were + in turnovers all five games. Big Blue won three of last four home tilts. AFC East teams are 12-13-1 vs spread outside its division; NFC East teams are 9-17. Five of last seven Jet games went over total.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chargers (3-8) — Denver is 2-0 with Osweiler starting, winning at Chicago 17-15 in his first road start; Broncos won seven of last eight series games, with wins by 7-14-12 points in last three. Denver won last four visits here. Chargers snapped 6-game skid last week; they lost last four home games, are 1-5 vs spread at home and was down 21-0 in game they covered. San Diego scored 30+ points in all three of its wins; they’re 2-6 vs spread in its losses- they’re 3-3 as an underdog. Broncos ran ball for 170-179 yards in last two games; they averaged 86 ypg before that. Eight of last 11 series totals were 47+. Teams are 3-5 week after playing New England. Three of last four San Diego home games stayed under total.

Chiefs (6-5) @ Raiders (5-6) — KC won/covered last five games, running ball for 152.2 ypg after starting season 1-5, but Chiefs had major injury issues on OL last week, not sure how healthy they’ll be here. Chiefs are 3-1 vs Oakland in Reid era, with wins all by 17+; they lost two of last three visits here, after winning eight in row at Oakland before that. Raiders snapped 3-game skid in Nashville LW; they’re 5-2 vs spread as underdogs this year. Teams are 3-6 SU week after playing Titans and were favored in seven of nine games. Favorites are 1-5 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Chiefs were + in turnovers seven games in row- they’re +14 in turnovers their last five games.

Eagles (4-7) @ Patriots (10-1) — Philly allowed 951 TY, 90 points in last couple games, giving up 11 TDs, five FGA on 21 drives. Pats lost first game LW, lost Gronkowski; Brady’s three best targets are out here. NE won last four series games, scoring 31+ in three of the four. Eagles lost last three games, scoring 16.7 ppg; they’re 1-2 as underdogs this year- Bradford is expected back at QB, not sure that is a help. Patriots are 3-0-3 as home favorite this year, 0-2-1 vs spread in last three overall. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-7 vs spread; AFC home favorites are 5-3-1. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; three of last four Eagle games went over.

Colts (6-5) @ Steelers (6-5) — Indy is 4-0 when 40-year old backup Hasselbeck starts; they won last three games, covered last four- they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, but are 3-16 in last 19 games vs Steelers, losing 13 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’68/’08. Pitt whacked Indy 51-34 LY. Steelers are 2-3 (1-4 vs spread) in last five games; they’re 2-1 as home faves. Pitt scored 30+ points in last three games; Big Ben had concussion late in game LW but is expected to play here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8, 6-5 on road. Seven of last nine Pitt games stayed under total.