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Reply To: NFL Week 13 • 'Thursday Night Football' • 12/3/12

Home Forums NFL Service Plays NFL Week 13 • 'Thursday Night Football' • 12/3/12 Reply To: NFL Week 13 • 'Thursday Night Football' • 12/3/12

#18098
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STEVE MERRIL

Steve’s Screenshot’

Packers (-2.5, 47) at Lions
(8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFL)

My power ratings make Green Bay a 2-point favorite, so the opening line was high a -3. Money has since come in on the Lions, pushing the line down to the current price of 2.5 at the majority of sports books.

Green Bay has been a totally different team since their bye. The Packers are just 1-4 SU/ATS since their week off, including an ugly 18-16 home loss versus Detroit as a -10.5 point favorite. Green Bay has scored 16 points or less in three of their last five games as that unit is decimated by injuries, especially along the offensive line.

Detroit has played much better football in recent weeks; the Lions come in on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning streak. Their defense has been terrific while allowing just 43 total points in those three games. However, overall, Detroit still has weak numbers on both sides of the ball this season. The Lions are only averaging 20.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. Detroit’s defense is giving up 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

This is an extremely difficult game to handicap; the Packers are the better team with revenge, but the Lions are in much better current form.