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Reply To: NCAA Week 14 • Friday Service Plays • 12/4/15

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STEVE MERRIL

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Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (-13.5, 69) (8 pm ET, espn2)

My power ratings make Bowling Green -12, so at +14 or more there would be a little bit of value on Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois has won six of their last seven games while going 5-1-1 ATS. The Huskies are averaging 34.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 29.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play. The Huskies’ defense has been solid away from home while only giving up 22.5 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this season.

Bowling Green has won eight of their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. The Falcons have been steamrolling opponents, and in fact, their last six wins have come by a combined score of 320-109. Bowling Green is averaging 44.2 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

This is the third straight season that these two teams have met in the MAC Championship game. Bowling Green won 47-27 as a +3 point underdog in 2013 and last year Northern Illinois won 51-17 as a -5 point favorite. Bowling Green does have a substantial revenge motive in this game, but the line has been adjusted more than two full touchdowns compared to the past two seasons.