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Reply To: NCAA Week 14 • Previews, Articles, Info. • Saturday 12/5/15

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2015 College Football

Week 14
Baylor lost two of last three games, losing 28-21 in OT in quagmire LW with #3 QB Johnson playing. Bears won four of their last five games vs Texas, with last three wins by 20+ points; favorites covered four of last six series games. Longhorns lost last two visits here 30-10/40-24; faves are 7-1 vs spread in last eight visits to Waco. Texas lost three of its last four games; they were outscored 150-30 in four true road games in ’15

Georgia Southern (-17) won 69-31 at Georgia State LY, running ball for 613 yards on 63 tries- TY was 660-455. Eagles are 8-3 with all eight of its wins by 20+ points- they’re 5-1 as favorites this year, covering last four games overall. State won last three games, is bowl eligible if they pull upset here- they’re 6-1-1 as an underdog this year. Home underdogs are 5-9 against spread in Sun Belt this season.

Arkansas State won its last seven games, scoring 47.7 ppg; they are 4-2 as favorites this year. Home side won both Texas State-Arkansas State games; Bobcats lost 38-21 (+7) in last visit here. Texas State is 0-5 as an underdog; they covered once in last five games. Last seven ASU games went over total; five of last six TSU games stayed under. Home favorites are 11-11 against the spread in Sun Belt this season.

UL-Monroe (-6.5) won 30-17 at New Mexico State LY, but Warhawks have already fired their coach this year- they’re 0-11 vs I-A teams, losing 28-26 in Hawai’i LW. New Mexico State won three of last four games, rallying behind RB Rose (1,593 YR, 7.5 ypc this year)- they ran ball for 226 ypg the last five games. Four of last five ULM games went over the total; over is 8-2-1 in Aggie games this season.

Kansas State won last three games with West Virginia; they were dog in two of the three; Mountaineers (+13) lost 35-12 in last visit here, in ’13. West Virginia won last four games, scoring 37 ppg; they won last couple games by combined score of 79-6. K-State won last two games, becomes bowl eligible with win here; they scored 42.3 ppg in last three games. Big X home underdogs are 7-9 against the spread this year.

South Alabama (-13) won 47-21 at Appalachian State LY, running ball for 243 yards. ASU won eight of last nine games, with seven of the eight wins by 18+ points- they won last four road games by average score of 48-9. Jaguars lost four of last six games, gaining total of only 420 yards, but they did win last two home games, scoring 42 ppg. USA is 2-6 as an underdog but they did win at San Diego State, best team in Mt West.

Underdogs covered four of last five Troy-ULLafayette games; ULL won last four series games, winning 41-36/31-17 in last two played here. ULL lost last three games overall, allowing 32.3 ppg; they’re 1-3-1 vs spread this year in games with single digit spreads. Troy lost last two games, allowing 76 points; they’re 3-2 as underdogs, but got 20+ points in four of the five games. Three of last four ULL games stayed under total.

Southern Mississippi won its last six games, scoring 48.2 ppg to get here with 9-3 record after being 4-32 SU the last three years. USM won this game over Houston in 2011, then coach Fedora bolted to UNC. Western Kentucky’s only losses are Indiana/LSU; they scored 50.5 ppg and won last four games- they’re 6-3 as favorites this year. USM is 9-2 vs spread this year, 4-1 as an underdog. Nine of last 11 WKU games went over.

Houston beat Temple 22-13/31-10 last two years; teams didn’t play this year. Cougars are 11-1, losing at UConn two weeks ago; they were held to 17 points in loss, only time they scored less than 33. Temple is 5-0 as an underdog this year, winning four, losing 24-20 to Notre Dame. CUSA favorites are 29-21 vs spread this year. Four of last five Houston games, four of last six Temple games stayed under the total.

Stanford won five of its last seven games with USC; they beat Trojans 41-31 (+9.5) in LA Sept 19, game they led 27-24 at half (TY 474-427). USC has different coach now; both teams have senior QBs. Cardinal has had tough run, playing Oregon/rival Cal/ND last three weeks; they’re 7-4 as favorite this year. USC won five of last six games after 3-3 start; they are 0-2 as an underdog this year. Under is 3-1-1 in last five USC games, 4-2 in last six Stanford games.

Alabama’s DC is new Georgia coach, but stay thru end of year; Florida’s coach is old Alabama OC, not lot of secrets here. Crimson Tide won SEC title game in ’12/’14; they won last three games with Florida by average score of 37-12. Bama won last nine games, covered last four, winning by average score of 37-11. Gators lost 27-2 to Florida State LW; they held four of last five foes to 14 or less points, are 1-1-1 as an underdog in ’15.

San Diego State won its last five games with Air Force (5-0 vs spread); Aztecs lost at home to South Alabama Sept 19; they’re won eight games in row since 1-3 start, with all eight wins by 14+ points. San Diego State is 5-0 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Falcons are 3-1 as underdogs; they won five of last six games after 3-3 start; they got upset 47-35 at New Mexico week- this is their third week in row on road.

North Carolina won 11 games in row since 17-13 loss to South Carolina in Charlotte Labor Day weekend; they scored 50 ppg in last four games. UNC is 1-1 as underdog this year; they lost 59-38/50-35 last two games with Clemson, giving up 436 PY to Tigers LY. Clemson is 12-0 but 0-4 vs spread last four games, with one of four wins by more than 10 points. Tigers are 2-2 this season as single digit favorite. ACC faves are 22-32 vs spread this season.

Michigan State-Iowa split last four meetings; Hawkeyes haven’t won a bowl since 2010- they’re dog despite being 12-0. Iowa is 7-13 in its last 20 games as an underdog (1-0 this year). Spartans’ only loss was 39-38 on last play at Nebraska; they beat Michigan/Ohio State, both on last play. MSU covered five of last six games; they’re 1-2 as single digit fave this season. Four of last six Spartan games, five of last seven Iowa games went over total.