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Reply To: NCAA Week 14 • Previews, Articles, Info. • Saturday 12/5/15

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Greg Dempson

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans

My College football record at Every Edge stands at 9–3 ATS. Onto this week’s selection. The last time the Iowa Hawkeyes went undefeated during the regular season was back in 1922. Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, they will most certainly have an opportunity to play in the College Football Playoffs, if they can defeat the Michigan State Spartans.

When reviewing each teams SOS, (strength of schedule,) Michigan State clearly has played tougher opponents. The Spartans played the 26th toughest schedule while outscoring opponents 33.4 vs. 21.1 PPG. Michigan State’s YPG vs. other FBS foes is 5.6 ranking then #64. Michigan State has a defense that is ranked #15 and they held Ohio State to a season in rushing as well as the Michigan Wolverines.

As for Iowa they played the 59th SOS outscoring opponents by a margin of 33.7 vs. 18.7 PPG. The Hawkeyes YPG vs. other FBS teams is 4.6 for ranking of #66.

Each team is +13 PPG in Conference play but one glaring difference is the fact that Iowa didn’t face, Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State in the regular season. Michigan State were fortunate in their win vs. Michigan but got robbed by the officials in their lone loss at Nebraska. Iowa was badly outplayed at Northwestern, (outgained by 183 yards and held to 11 first downs vs. 22 by the Wildcats,) but the Hawkeyes were aided by +4 in the takeaway department.
View From the 50 Yard Line

· Working with various sets of power ratings I make Michigan State a minimum favorite of –4.5 points to a maximum favorite of –7 points.

· The past two seasons the Spartans are 9–0 ATS after winning four of five of their last six games.

· The Hawkeyes are 0–3 ATS in their last three vs. Michigan State.

· Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39–38 while Iowa won 28–20 but I note that Iowa allowed Nebraska to possess the ball for 36 minutes and the Cornhuskers out-yarded Iowa 433 to 250 yards.

· Michigan State held Penn State sack-less last week and the Nittany Lions were #1 in the nation in sacking opposing quarterbacks.

· The Hawkeyes defeated only four teams this season with a winning straight up record.

· I do like the Spartans in this game but I am focusing on the total rather than the side.

· Over/Under Angles

· The Spartans and the Hawkeyes are each 5–2 to the over in their last 7 games.

· The last four BIG–10 Championship games have sailed way over the total by almost 21 PPG.

· Michigan State is 35–13 to the over after covering four or five of their last six games.

· The past two seasons Iowa is 12–03 to the over after playing a conference game.

· The Spartans are 27–13 to the over after allowing 17 points (or less) in two straight games.

· In their four common opponents Michigan State outscored their opposition 34.5 to 23.3 while Iowa outscored their foes by a margin of 33.3 to 20.5. If you were to average those numbers your O/U would be almost 56 points.
College Football Pick

My Every Edge game of the Week is for Michigan State and Iowa to sail over 51 points.