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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 12/5/15

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1-Unit Play. Take #721 Seton Hall (-5.5)
over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 5)
Rutgers is a terrible team. They scummed out a cover against Wake Forest this week in their game in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. But that was a garbage cover and I don’t think they are going to get that lucky twice in a row. Seton Hall really should’ve covered against George Washington, so we have one team that shouldn’t have beaten the number in their last game against a team that should’ve.

3-Unit Play. Take #730 Georgetown (-5.5)
over Syracuse (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
Pretty simple here: we have an unranked team favored over a ranked team. Period. End of story. There is absolutely no way in hell that Syracuse is one of the best 25 teams in the country. I tip my hat to them for what they did down in the Bahamas. But that was a fluke. I don’t think that Georgetown is very good at all. But they are at home against a team that is teetering. The Orange gave away that game this week against a weak Wisconsin team. I think that one will linger with this group and they simply can’t rely on the 3-point shot as much as they have been. Again, I’m letting the books be my guide here. Georgetown is 3-3 and unranked. Syracuse is 6-1 and ranked. But the Hoyas are the favorite here. Good enough for me.

3-Unit Play. Take #793 Boise State (-6.5)
over Portland (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
This one shouldn’t be a game. Portland lost three of its top four scorers from last year’s team. And these weren’t small losses. Kevin Bailey was a four-year starter and Thomas van der Mars was a hero in the post. Portland has just two decent players back from last year’s team – a team that we cashed in on several times – and they are doing yeoman’s work. But they aren’t better than Boise State. This is a decent little Boise team. But they already have four losses on the season – mainly because they have played Arizona and Michigan State three times. Last year Boise won road games at LMU, St. Mary’s, New Mexico and Utah State. They won at UNLV and San Diego State as well. These guys can play outside their home gym. Portland is not going to finish over .500 and they aren’t going to win this game. I don’t think they can stick within the number either.

*7-Unit Play*. Take #806 BYU (-4)
over Weber State (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
BYU is going to hammer Weber State here. Normally this would be a game to watch out for. Weber State is a really good team. They are going to win the Big Sky going away and they’ll be in the NCAA Tournament this March. They are really solid and they are going to be amped up for a chance to beat BYU in this in-state rivalry game. But guess what: they aren’t going to beat BYU in this in-state rivalry game. BYU just got its brains beat in by Utah in their own big rivalry spot. Not only that, but starter Nick Emery is suspended for this game because he punched a dude in the face. You know that that all means to me – it means that BYU is going to be focused and pissed off. They aren’t going to have a letdown. And they are going to be twice as focused knowing that they have to make up for the loss of a starter. BYU has the two best players on the floor in Kyle Collinsworth and Chase Fisher and the Cougars are big enough inside to toss Weber State around a bit. This game reminds me of BYU’s game against a really good Belmont team. They won that one by 14 and obliterated the spread in that game. These two teams play every year. And BYU wins every year. There’s no reason for this year to be any different and this game reminds exactly of our win on Pitt over Duquesne yesterday (which should’ve been my biggest play). Here are BYU’s margins of victory in this series over the last decade: 16, 9, 10, 28, 6, 17, 30, 15, 4, and 26. Yeah, there was that one year that they only won by four. But there were also a hell of a lot of 20+ point wins. BYU is going to win this one going away.

4-Unit Play. Take #739 California (-6.5)
over Wyoming (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
All I can say is that all those clowns that were able to bet Cal at -2.5 – where this line opened – are lucky bastards. Every one of them. If this number had opened and hung at 2.5 then this would’ve been the first 40-Unit Play in the history of Doc’s Sports. Wyoming sucks. They absolutely suck. And they aren’t going to win this game. I get it: they are tough at home, and this game is at altitude, and they will be all giggly because they are playing a Pac-12 team. But the Cowboys are awful. This is the same team that lost to Montana State and they were run out of the gym by Indiana State. Those two teams are terrible, and they beat Wyoming. The Cowboys have one good player: Josh Adams. And he is only so good. Take Adams away and you know what you have: six sophomores, a freshman, and a junior with a career high of 11 points in one game. The Cowboys stink. Cal has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing to San Diego State and Richmond. For the purposes of this wager, that’s awesome. Because that little skid has installed doubt in the betting public’s mind about this team. Well let me go ahead and settle that for you: Cal is good. They are really good. For my money they have one of the best backcourts in the country with Ty Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird. And their two freshmen, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, are Top 25 rated guys. Cal can play. They haven’t played on the road yet. But last year their first two road games were against two decent teams: Fresno State and Nevada. They won both by seven points. This is a better Cal team and they are going to win this game by double digits. Again, there is a reason that this line was bet up four full points immediately after it was opened. The Golden Bears are the play.

2-Unit Play. Take #742 Kansas (-22.5)
over Harvard (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)
Harvard is dead, it just doesn’t know it yet. Once the Crimson lost point guard Siyani Chambers for the season their fate was sealed. This team was already going to struggle this year. They overachieved and had to scramble to earn the Ivy title and an NCAA Tournament berth last year. But when Chambers blew out his knee that meant that three of their starters and five of their top six guys from last year are gone. Harvard has lost five of six games. And even though they haven’t been blown out yet they also haven’t played anywhere near as hostile as Lawrence. Harvard has played a bunch of regional games against rivals like Providence, UMass, B.C. Holy Cross and Northeastern. Those are edgy games against regional rivals. Now they are far, far away from home and facing a Jayhawks team that absolutely does not screw around. Kansas beat Loyola by 33 on Tuesday without even trying. Their other home game was won by 37. Harvard doesn’t have a chance in hell here. Kansas wins and wins big.

1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #724 Butler (-8.5)
over Indiana State (Noon)

1-Unit Play. Take #818 Indiana (-12.5)
over Morehead State (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #736 Purdue (-14)
over New Mexico (2 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #744 Gonzaga (-7)
over Arizona (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #748 Middle Tennessee State (-10.5)
over South Alabama (6 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take #756 St. Bonaventure (-5)
over Ohio (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #758 Oregon State (-9.5)
over Nevada (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #763 Georgia Tech (-6)
over Tulane (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #767 Providence (+3)
over Rhode Island (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #769 South Florida (+19)
over South Carolina (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #785 Wichita State (-6)
over St. Louis (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #788 UTEP (-1)
over Texas-Arlington (9 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #789 Pepperdine (-7.5)
over CS-Northridge (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #791 Fresno State (+1.5)
over Cal Poly (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #801 Miami, OH (+2.5)
over IUPUI (1 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 5)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #763 Georgia Tech (-1) AND Take #739 California (-1.5)