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Reply To: CBB • Monday Service Plays • 12/7/15

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#18820
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Keymaster

ROBERT FERRINGO

Under’ 146.0 – Oklahoma at Villanova
(7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)

1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take ‘Under’ 68.0
Oklahoma at Villanova (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)

1-Unit Play. Take #721 Oklahoma (+4.5)
over Villanova (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)

Note: This game should be at +4.5 and was mis-posted at +5. It will be graded at +4.5.
These are two of the top defensive teams in the country, with Villanova being rated No. 1 and Oklahoma at No. 5. This is a massive nonconference game – one of the biggest of the season – and I think that both teams are going to come out and dance around the ring a bit early before locking horns. Having to fly all the way out to Pearl Harbor is just enough to throw both teas off their game a bit and I do not expect them both to be at their sharpest right off the bat. The Sooners only managed 113 points in their previous biggest game of the year, against Wisconsin last week, and after scoring 111 points against Central Arkansas last Thursday I think that the Sooners are due to come back down to earth a bit. Oklahoma shot 52 percent in its last game – including 59 percent from 3-point range (13-for-22) – but that was on their home turf. Villanova has hot over 50 percent in back-to-back games. But in their first neutral site game they played a 59-45 grinder with Stanford. It’s just a different animal playing outside your home gym and I don’t expect either team to continue their torrid shooting. Oklahoma played four early season neutral site games last year and none of the cracked 140. All three tournament games were low scoring as well. Villanova went the same way. In their three neutral site games they totaled 130, 115 and 132 points. I see this one playing ‘under’.

1-Unit Play. Take #735 Western Illinois (+18)

over Iowa (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)
I think we will catch Iowa looking ahead to its big showdown with Iowa State this Thursday and they won’t take Western Illinois seriously. But this game is a huge one for WIU so I expect them to max out. They have four starters back from last year and a couple guys, Garret Covington and J.C. Fuller that can put the ball in the hole. Iowa is a really young team. They have four seniors starters but then the entire rest of the team is freshmen and sophomores. I just think that on the whole they aren’t going to be as focused on this game with a tilt against their in-state rivals and a Top 10 team on deck.

1-Unit Play. Take #739 Oregon (-12.5)
over Navy (9:45 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)
Navy is going to be inspired by playing on a military base in this game. But I don’t think they are going to be able to keep up with the Ducks. Oregon is coming off its first loss of the season so they won’t really be in a mood to mess around. Navy has won seven straight, all against nobodies. They lost by 18 in their home opener against Florida and lost by 14 points at home to Charleston. Those are the two highest rated teams they have faced, until Oregon. Last year they lost by 40 to Notre Dame and by 37 to Providence. They only play two 6-9 guys (no one else it taller than 6-7) and they will be outmatched in the post on both ends. Navy doesn’t shoot well and they are more of a defensive grinder team. But when Oregon cracks their defense the Middies won’t be able to score enough to keep up. Oregon will be up by about four points at the half. But then I see them hitting the jets and winning this one by about 17.

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 151.5
VMI at Butler (7 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)
Butler has gone ‘over’ the total in every game it has played this year. The books have obviously jacked up their totals and this is a ton of points. Even if the Bulldogs were to score 85 that would still require VMI to get near 70 in order for this one to go ‘over’. I don’t see it happening from a very limited Keydets squad. A lot of people are used to betting VMI games ‘over’ because they used to play at one of the fastest paces in the country. But new coach Dan Earl has slowed them down and their pace of play is in the 190’s. Butler has big games with Tennessee and Purdue on deck and they just slammed Indiana State over the weekend. This one could be a bit of a flat spot and I just don’t see them getting over this number. I would say that this is probably my favorite play of the day.