WASHINGTON (-4.5) 23 Dallas 18
The Cowboys were crushed last week on Thanksgiving Day in front of a national television audience as Tony Romo fell completely apart and gave away the game to the Panthers. To add injury to insult, Romo reinjured his collarbone and is now out for the season. With those losses the Cowboys hopes for the postseason are now gone as well as Matt Cassel takes over once again. Cassel is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as a starter with Dallas and this week has the task of travelling to Washington to take on the suddenly division leading Redskins.
As I mentioned in my write-up last week the Redskins are a completely different team at home so far this season with a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS record, covering the spread by an average of nearly 10 points per game. At home last week the Redskins dominated the Giants with a 407 at 6.4 yppl to 332 at 5.0 total yard advantage and were +3 in turnovers. No doubt they’ll be fired up to play on Monday night at home against a division rival and I expect to get their best effort.
The Cowboys have actually looked like an average team statistically overall but turnovers have killed them so far this season as they are dead last in the NFL with a -12 net turnover difference, including -4 in net fumbles. As a result the Cowboys benefit from a very negative 374-540-14 contrary turnover angle that plays against certain teams that have a significant difference in turnover margin relative to their opponent (in this case the Redskins). The premise being that turnovers will regress back towards the mean, creating value on the team with the negative difference to date. They also qualify in a 692-520-41 fundamental rushing situation while Washington qualifies in another negative 238-372-13 situation that plays against certain home favorites. The Redskins do, however, qualify in a good 73-31-2 momentum situation that is already 4-0 so far this season. My numbers favor the Redskins by 6.4 points accounting for the loss of Romo.
Adding up the numbers this one looks like a toss-up to me but I just don’t like the spot for Dallas coming off of a crushing loss last week with their season now over. On the other side the Redskins play well at home and have lots of positive energy heading into this game. Slight lean to the Redskins minus the points.