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Vikings (8-4) @ Cardinals (10-2) — Minnesota lost two of last three games after winning 5 in row before that; Vikings are 4-2 SU on road, 4-0 vs spread when a dog. Arizona is 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorite- they’re 40 for last 74 on third down. Cardinals have three-game lead in NFC West; Vikings are tied with Packers atop NFC North. Arizona held five of last six opponents under 100 yards rushing; Vikings scored 9.8 ppg this year when running for less than 100 yards. Minnesota is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last three by 3-24-7 points; Vikings’ last visit here was ’09. NFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-5. Four of five Arizona home games went over the total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Viking games.
Steelers (7-5) @ Bengals (10-2) — Cincy (even) won 16-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 8, its first win in last four series games; series was swept in six of last eight years. Steelers are 4-1 in last five visits here. Steelers won three of last four games, scoring 30+ points all four games- they’re 2-3 on road (1-2-1 as road dogs) with their only road wins at woeful Rams/Chargers. Bengals are 4-1-1 as home favorites this year; they won glorified scrimmages last couple of weeks over Rams/Browns by total of 68-10; they’re 10-1-1 vs spread this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-24-3 vs spread. Three of last four Pitt games went over the total; five of last six Bengal games stayed under. Teams are 3-6-2 vs spread this year week after playing Indianapolis.
Bills (6-6) @ Eagles (5-7) — LeSean McCoy returns to Philly with Buffalo squad playing its fourth road game in five weeks; Bills are 5-0 this year with positive turnover ratio, 1-6 in its other games. Eagles have only three takeaways (-5) in last four games. Eagles snapped skid at Foxboro LY, scoring two special teams TDs and one on defense- they’re 5-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-6 when they don’t. Bills held four of last five opponents to 21 or less points. Buffalo won five of last seven series games; their last visit here was in ’07. Average total in first half of last four Eagle games: 32.5. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-12 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 3-6. Five of last seven Buffalo games, four of last five Philly games went over total.
Falcons (6-6) @ Panthers (12-0) — Skidding Atlanta lost six of last seven games, four of its last five losses were by 4 or less points. Falcons lost four of last five games with Carolina; three of four losses were by 10+ points. Atlanta is 5-4 in last nine visits here. Falcons split six road games; this is first time they’re underdog since first two weeks (2-0) of this season. Carolina scored 39.3 ppg in last three games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites; four of its six home wins are by 8 or less points. Panthers ran ball for 148.7 ypg last three weeks; they trailed at halftime LW for first time this season. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this year. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total; eight of last ten Carolina games went over.
49ers (4-8) @ Browns (2-10) — Cleveland goes back to Manziel at QB; they’ve lost seven games in row (0-6 vs spread in last six), allowing 30+ points in last five-they’ve run ball for 50.6 ypg in last five games. 49ers are 2-2 (3-1 against spread) with Gabbert at QB, winning in OT LW at Chicago, their first road win in six tries- they’re 4-0 vs spread when scoring 20+ points, 2-6 when they don’t. Browns won two of three series games, with average total of 27.3 in three games. Cleveland is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 10-5 vs spread; NFC West road teams are 6-9. Four of last six 49er games, three of last four Cleveland games stayed under the total, but five of six SF road games went over.
Redskins (5-7) @ Bears (5-7) — Both teams lost on last play LW, Chicago missing 35-yard FG on last play of regulation before losing in OT, Redskins losing to Dallas Monday night on late FG. Redskins are still tied for first in NFC East; they’re 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last five, four by 4 or less points- they won six of last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Chicago games were decided by four or less points or in OT; they’re 1-5 at home, with only win 22-20 over Oakland. Washington is 0-5 on road, 1-4 vs spread, losing by an average of 32-17. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 9-7. Four of six Chicago home games went over total. Jay Cutler’s brother-in-law has been missing for over a week; not sure if that is affecting his play.
Lions (4-8) @ Rams (4-8) — Detroit is 3-1 since its bye, losing on a 61-yard Hail Mary LW to Green Bay; they’ve had three extra days to prep here. Rams are in freefall, losing five in a row (0-5 vs spread), firing their OC Monday. Lions are 1-3 on road; this is only their third true road game since Week 2. Detroit won six of last nine series games, last of which was a 27-23 win in Fisher’s first game as Rams’ coach in 2012. Keenum is expected to start at QB for Rams’ squad that scored five TDs on 63 drives in last five games; there won’t be many people at this game, with Rams rumored to be headed to LA. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 8-5 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 8-7. Six of last eight Detroit games went over total; seven of last eight St Louis games stayed under.
Chargers (3-9) @ Chiefs (7-5) — KC (-3) crushed Chargers 33-3 at Qualcomm three weeks ago, outgaining Bolts 385-201; they’ve won three in row vs San Diego, after losing 11 of 13 to Chargers before that. Chiefs won/covered their last six games- they’re +15 in turnovers in those six, after being -2 in first six games. San Diego covered last three road games; they are 1-4 on road, with only one road loss by more than seven points. KC scored three TDs in 4th quarter at Oakland LW, with defensive score and TD drives of 13-2 yards- they picked Carr off three times in fourth quarter. Home teams are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West divisional games this year. Three of last four Charger games stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Chief games.
Saints (4-8) @ Buccaneers (6-6) — Winston got first NFL win at Superdome back in Week 2 with 26-19 (+9) win, snapping 7-game skid vs Saints, who won last three visits here, by 7-2-3 points. Bucs are 5-3 in last eight games, allowing one TD on 21 drives in last two home games; they’re 5-1 allowing 20 or less points, 1-5 if they allow more. Saints lost last four in row, allowing 36.5 ppg; they’re 1-5 on road, with four losses by 12+ points- their only road win was 27-21 at Indy. New Orleans is 0-3 outdoors, outscored 113-53; they’ve allowed 23 TDs on last 55 drives, gave up 189 rushing ypg in last three games. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games. Six of last eight Saint games went over total; three of Bucs’ last four games stayed under.
Colts (6-6) @ Jaguars (4-8) — Indy was outgained 431-321, ran for only 60 yards in 16-13 OT win over Jaguars at home in Week 4, their sixth series win in row. Colts won last three visits here, by 27-10/37-3/44-17, they’re 3-0 in division games this year, winning by 2-3-7 points, 3-3 on road, winning by 2-7-3. Jax lost last two games despite scoring 64 points in losses by 6-3 points; their last six games were all decided by 6 or less points. Jags are 2-3 at home, beating Miami/Titans. Hasselbeck has rib separation, is expected to play; backup is veteran standby Whitehurst. Over is 5-3 in last eight Indy games, 6-2 in last eight Jax tilts. Home teams are 5-2 SU in AFC South games this year. Jaguars missed two PATs and two-point play in 42-39 loss at Tennessee LW- not good to score six TDs and still lose.
Titans (3-9) @ Jets (7-5) — Gang Green rallied from behind to beat Giants in OT LW; they are +14 in turnovers in their seven wins, -13 in six losses- Jets are 4-3 as home faves; they are 6-1 when scoring 23+ points, 1-4 when they don’t. Tennessee scored 42-34-42 points in its three wins; they’re -8 in turnovers; 2-2 as road dogs- five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points. Titans are 1-7 vs spread when scoring less than 33. Underdogs are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Jaguars. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-7. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Tennessee games, 3-1 in last four Jet games. Jets have been outscored in second half only one time all year, in Week 7 loss to the Patriots (9-1-2).
Raiders (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2) — Denver (-5.5) won 16-10 at Oakland in Week 5, the only NFL game this year where team won despite not scoring offenisve TD; neither team gained 300 yards in game, Denver’s 8th straight series win (seven by 13+). Raiders lost last three visits to Mile High City, 37-6/37-21/47-14; they lost three of last four games, are 3-0 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 2-3-5 points (3-3SU). Denver won all three of Osweiler’s starts, running ball for 161.3 ypg- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Broncos are -7 in turnovers in their losses, +10 in wins; Raiders turned ball over 11 times in their last five games (-5). Home sides are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West games this year. Over is 4-1-2 in the last seven Oakland games.
Seahawks (7-5) @ Ravens (4-8) — Seattle won/covered last three games; they scored average of 34.5 ppg in last four games- they ran ball for 176 ypg last three weeks, allowed one TD on 28 drives in winning last three road games, by 17-1-31 points. Baltimore has problems at QB; backup Schaub is banged up, which would leave Clausen as QB- he lost 26-0 to Seattle in Week 3 while starting for Bears. All 12 Raven games have been decided by eight or less points- they’re 3-1 as an underdog. Home side won last four series games; Seattle lost last two visits here 31-24/44-41ot. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 8-6 vs spread; NFC West road favorites are 4-3. Last four Seattle games went over total; three of last four Raven games stayed under.
Cowboys (4-8) @ Packers (8-4) — Green Bay needed 61-yard Hail Mary to win in Detroit LW, just second win in last six games; they lost last two home games by total of six points. Pack is 3-3 as home favorite, failing to cover last three. Cowboys held four of last six foes to 16 or less points, winning last two road games; they’re 2-3 as road dogs, but 1-7 SU with backup QB starting. Packers won last four series games, beating Pokes 26-21 in playoffs LY. Dallas lost eight of last nine visits here, with win in ’08. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 3-7; NFC North home favorites are 7-3. Seven of last nine Dallas games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 5-23 on third down last couple weeks; they had three extra days to prep here after Thursday night win.
Patriots (10-2) @ Texans (6-6) — New England lost last two games, blowing 14-point leads in both; they gave up two special teams TDs in home loss LW. Pats won five of six series games, with average total of 56.8- they won two of three visits here, with both wins by FG. O’Brien/Hoyer are former Patriots. Houston won four of last five games, allowing 17 or less points in the wins- they won last three road games, allowing 9.7 ppg. Pats are 1-3 as road favorites- four of their five road wins by 7+ points. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 5-3 vs spread. Houston is tied atop AFC South despite starting three different QBs this year; they’re +7 in turnovers last seven games, after being -8 in first five games. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total.
Giants (5-7) @ Dolphins (5-7) — Giants have lost four games in last minute when they had lead, most by any team since 1970. Big Blue lost last three games, all by 6 or less points- they’re 1-2 on natural grass, scoring 17.8 ppg. Miami lost four of last six games, with two wins by total of three points- they’re 2-2 at home. Giants ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in last three games; they won five of last seven series games, winning 19-14/17-7 in last two visits here- last seven series totals were 37 or less. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 7-7-1. Last three Giant games, three of last four Miami games stayed under total. Teams have same record, but Miami is playing out string, while Giants are tied for first place, despite blowing those late leads.