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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 12/12/15

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Saturday’s College Basketball Plays

3-Unit Play. #523 Take Pepperdine (+2)
over Ball State (1 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
I know the Waves have to travel from the west coast for an early start, but Pepperdine is still the better team in my mind (and getting points). While Ball State has started well at 7-2, including a win over Valpo, I believe they are playing over their heads. This Waves team won 18 games in 2014 and has all its team back for further improvement. They are better than their 5-4 start, and they win here.

3-Unit Play. #541 Take Bowling Green (+6.5)
over Detroit (1 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
The better team is getting points. Bowling Green can and will win this game. They’ve won six straight, five of those by at least seven points. I think oddsmakers are giving a bit too much credit to the Titans at home, and we fade them here.

4-Unit Play. #527 Take Marquette (+7.5)
over Wisconsin (1:30 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
When in doubt, take the points in this match-up. Also, this happens to be the weakest Badgers team in quite some years. Marquette is 7-2 and has an absolute best of a player in freshman Henry Ellenson (16 ppg, 8 prg). Wisky just lost at home outright as a double digit favorite to Milwaukee. They shouldn’t be laying this heavy of a number to a much stronger rival. Take the points and the live underdog in this one.

4-Unit Play. #531 Take Old Dominion (+2)
over Georgia State (2 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
ODU won 27 games last year. Despite having a good bulk of that talent left this season, the Monarchs have been spinning their wheels pretty much since the season started. Well, I look for that to change and kick it into gear this afternoon. Last year ODU beat the Panthers in overtime, and it was Georgia State that graduated far more talent. The gap is a bit bigger in 2015 between these two. ODU snapped a four-game losing streak, albeit to good teams, earlier this week. The Monarchs continue in the right direction with a win at Georgia State.

2-Unit Play. #560 Take Xavier (-4.5)
over Cincinnati (5:30 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
Xavier has wrecked every team in their way to a 9-0 start. Included in that is double digit wins over Michigan, USC and Dayton. And actually, I think this line is quite modest for what the Musketeers have shown thus far. Cincy isn’t the 23rd ranked team in the country for my money. I don’t see why the X-Men don’t produce another breezer against their city rivals.

2-Unit Play. #613 Take Montana (+10)
over Washington (6 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
While the Grizzlies aren’t a dominant Big Sky team like in recent years, this match-up stands out because of the vulnerablility of this UW team. This Huskies team is young, and I don’t see a reason why the line is as high for such an unproven team. Montana has covered its last three games, including being heavy underdogs at Pepperine and Gonzaga. They also have a win over Boise State. Montana are 8-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Pac-12. I think this line is more focused on the Pac 12 than the team the Griz are actually playing. Another close one for the Big Sky program and a cover just the same.

2-Unit Play. #601 Take Eastern Kentucky (+1.5)
over Marshall (7 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
EKU is coming off a road cover playing fairly well at Kentucky. The Colonels are still 6-3 on the year and have covered four of their five lined games this season. A cover here also means a win, and that’s the case for the OVC squad in Huntington, WV.

2-Unit Play. #609 Take Delaware (-1)
over Marist (7 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
Marist might be one of the worst teams in college basketball. Delaware is still Delaware, but they are far removed from being compared to Marist. A win by the Blue Hens here and they are already half way to last season’s win total. These two have a common opponent in Iona. Delaware lost at Iona by 15 while Marist lost at home to the Gaels by 36. Delaware is the better team from the better conference. Take them minus the small number here.

‘5-Unit Play’. #583 Take Arkansas-Little Rock (+4)
over DePaul (10 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
Personally I don’t think DePaul should be favored. I get why the line credits the home team, but I would say the mid-major underdog is better. ALR’s 7-0 has certainly shown more up to this point, including quality wins at Tulsa and San Diego State. Beating DePaul here would actually be seen as a lesser victory. Nonetheless, the points are a bonus. DePaul has beaten nobody worth writing home about, nor have they even scheduled a legit team so far this first month of the year. The edge goes to the Sun Belt school trying to make a name for themselves. And hey, a win vs. the Big East is good for a team like the Trojans no matter whom its against.

3-Unit Play. #627 Take Sacramento State (+4.5)
over Portland (10 p.m., Saturday, December 12)
Portland is just so ‘blah’ to me. The Pilots are 4-6. They’ve lost their last two home games and their only two wins at home were non-lined games. Why are the favored here? Oddsmakers simply got this one wrong vs. 6-2 Sac State. I’ll take the points, but I expect an outright victory by the Hornets.