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steve merril

scrren shot friday

Diamondbacks @ Cubs — Zack Godley is back pitching for the Diamondbacks. His first stint with Arizona was good as he went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts. Since then, Godley has only thrown 10.1 innings in Triple-A while giving up 3 runs and eight hits. Because of that, who knows how long he’ll be able to last on Friday afternoon. Jon Lester will face the Diamondbacks for the second time this season. In the first meeting, he allowed 2 runs and five hits in seven innings pitched in a 5-4 Arizona win. The Cubs are -205 in this game, but that price is way too high, so the value is definitely on the Diamondbacks in this matchup.

Braves @ Nationals — Atlanta’s Julio Teheran has been up and down this season. Over his last ten starts, the righty has allowed 3 runs or less in eight games. But when he’s bad, he’s really bad. Teheran gave up 8 runs and nine hits in 4.1 innings pitched at home to the Yankees in his last outing. Overall, Teheran is 2-5 with a 6.32 ERA in 13 road starts this season. He has given up 13 runs and 20 hits in two starts against Washington this season. The -190 price tag on the Nationals is warranted in this game.

Indians @ Tigers — Detroit’s Kyle Lobstein comes off the disabled list to make a start on Friday night. Lobstein went 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in six minor league rehab starts, so he’s in terrible form. The southpaw owns two wins over Cleveland despite giving up 6 runs and 14 hits in 12 innings of work. Corey Kluber is 2-6 with a 4.36 ERA in twelve career starts against Detroit. I lean Over 8 (-110) in this game.

Phillies @ Red Sox — Philadelphia’s Adam Morgan continues to be an under the radar story in baseball this season. Morgan was 0-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before coming up to the Majors. He owns two wins over the Blue Jays, and two wins over the Padres. Morgan has a 0.97 WHIP in his last three starts while not walking a single batter. We’ll see if Morgan holds up in Boston where the Red Sox are hitting .293 as a team this season. And with the Red Sox -180, I’m not willing to find out.