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Reply To: NCAAF Saturday Service Plays 9/5/15

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NEWSLETTER College Football Futures Prediction From Robert Ferringo :

Take #201 Wisconsin (+10.5) over Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
As for this play in this marquee game, I am not going to rate it but I still like the value on the underdog. Alabama is still a premier program in college football. But they have been overrated for the last five years, as if Nick Saban and the Tide have magical powers that make them so much better than everyone else. They are just 20-21 ATS the past three seasons and are just 5-10 ATS in nonconference games in that time.

The fact is that Alabama has skated by on easy, tailor-made schedules the past few years and haven’t been that impressive when they have had to step up and play equal talent. The Crimson Tide are in a major rebuild this year. They don’t have a quarterback and they have just three starters back on offense. Sure, the defense is still solid. But Wisconsin is used to dealing with top-tier defenses and they won’t change their game plan of trying to cram it down someone’s throat. The Badgers have six starters back from a Top 5 defense last season and both defenses are going to dominate this game.

This one should be ugly to watch. But it should also be low-scoring. And after Wisconsin nearly knocked off LSU in the opener last year – they led 24-7 in the second half – the Badgers showed that they could bang heads with anyone from the SEC. There is too much uncertainty for either team to be this large of a favorite, so I would take the points.