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dave essler

MLB Thoughts

free play – 962 COL (-105) vs 961 SFG

Atlanta-Washington: We can dis the Braves all we want, and as I said last night they’re not going 0-for-September. Teheran does give them perhaps their best chance to win, however. Tanner Roark takes Strasburgs’ turn o the hill, and he hasn’t started since June – and the Braves know him well. Depending on Thursday’s bullpen usage and how the game plays out, this could be the spot for at least the Braves RL – you know they’re not losing every game.

Miami-Mets: Koehler got beat up by Washington last week and the Mets beat him up about six weeks ago in Miami – maybe he’s got something adjusted. I actually thought Degrom would be more than -180 for some reason. He CAN be had – see what the Phillies did to him not long ago – and that wasn’t a “first” – it would behoove Degrom to pitch deep since the Mets bullpen has a 5.25 over the last week, all of those games at home. We know that at one time the Mets road record was pitiful, and the truth is probably somewhere in the middle – there are always parlay-killers especially now that we’ve got lots of chalk as teams fold, so be careful.

Brewers-Reds: Every time I see Garza come up I fully expect the game to go over – the total of 9 in an NL game (I don’t care what park it is) is a big number, but there for a reason. Sampson got blown up by these Brewers last week and I think he’s too inexperienced to make too many adjustments. Garza got blown up by the Reds – I can’t expect both of them to “turn it around” so all I could do is think about that over. It’s high, but I couldn’t go the other way. Both bullpens have been hit hard as well, which is why I see no value in a side, but Brewers if you made me.

Pirates-Cardinals: I was a little surprised to see Martinez only -140 to Happ, especially given that the Cardinals are 20-15 against left handed pitching and the Pirates are playing in Milwaukee Thursday while St. Louis is resting. Speaking of resting, a team with a huge lead like the Cardinals will rest people more often than usual – although since they DID have the off day this game may not be one of them – point, it’s probably more important from now on to wait for lineups, and I do know my bets won’t be early.

Giants-Rockies: I actually like the Rockies and the over here right off the bat. Heston pitched in Coors Field earlier this season and didn’t fare well, but I also saw where he pitched in Wrigley and got lit up as well, so that might tell me that he’s a beneficiary of the big park in SF. De La Rossa had a very good August with an ERA of 2.87 and he only allowed three home runs – so the Rockies or the Colorado RL is far from out of the question. Obviously a clear back end edge for SF – but let’s see how Thursday plays out.

Dodgers-Padres: Bolsinger coming off the DL is automatically a red flag/no bet situation, usually. He was also hit pretty hard at Petco earlier this season – the problem I have is Shields isn’t doing anything to warrant my money, either. He’s been very inconsistent this season, and both Norris and Alonso are listed as questionable – so probably better options.

Cleveland-Tigers: I know that the Tigers are playing terrible, but even with Kluber on the hill the Indians at -170 on the road is just something that’s off the table for me. Now, I COULD take the Indians RL if we felt they were the right side simply because they’ll get 27 outs no matter what happens.

Yankees-Rays: Severino has made quite the splash – but perhaps as more teams see/scout him he’ll get hit some. It’s hard to fathom a team like the Rays with Odorizzi on the mound being +170 here – so there’ the RL on the Rays bet or nothing, IMO.

Baltimore-Toronto: More chalk – but at least it’s Toronto who’s stock is super high. Stil, Jiminez is obviously more than capable – and we know Hutchinson is more than capable of giving up the long ball since he’s a fly ball pitcher game in and game out. I do have to question where the Orioles’ heads are at having done the free fall the last month. Toronto isn’t going to score 10+ runs per game, and the Orioles are going to score ten or none. Given the Jays’ pen has been better lately, I actually like the under here.

White Sox-Royals: Normally we just automatically take the opposing team when the Royals face a left handed pitcher but this is Danks, and the White Sox played Thursday afternoon in Minnesota. Since we’re just not sure (or I’m not) what we’ll get from Medlen, there are probably better games – any bet here depends on how the Royals game with the Tigers plays out Thursday night. At 9 I’d like the under.

Twins-Astros: I have to wonder if the Twins are finally fading, and mentally which is almost more important. That loss at home, late, to Chicago – could be the nail in the coffin. McHugh doesn’t typically give it up too often – and the Astros are rested – so this price is probably warranted.