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2015 college football

Saturday’s games

Arizona State is 3-7 as an underdog under coach Graham; they’re 1-7 in last eight neutral field games, 6-6 in non-league games. Sun Devils have a senior QB who made three starts LY. Texas A&M has soph QB with 5 career starts; Aggies are 3-10 vs spread in last 13 neutral field games, are 5-10 as a favorite since ’13. Both teams have three starters back on OL. A&M is 8-7 vs spread in its last fifteen non-conference games.

Stanford has a senior QB with 32 career starts and four starters back on its OL (65 starts), but Cardinal is just 3-6 in last nine games as a favorite on road, 4-6-2 in last 12 non-league games- since ’12, they’re 14-16 as a favorite. Northwestern covered just three of last 14 home games; since ’08, they’re 7-10 as a home dog- they’re 3-8 in last 11 non-league games. Wildcats have a new QB and only two starters back on offensive line.

Nebraska has new coach in Riley; they’re learning new offense, but their QB has 21 starts. Huskers lost 3 starters on OL: they’re 6-8 as a favorite at home last two years, 10-5 in last 12 non-league games. BYU has a brutal September (Boise-UCLA-Michigan after this); they’re 7-3 in last ten games as a road dog, 9-11 vs teams from Power-5 leagues. Cougars have a senior QB (20 starts) and three starters back on OL.

Petrino returns to Georgia Dome; he was Falcons’ coach in ’07 but quit before first season (3-10) was done. Louisville covered nine of last ten as an underdog but they lost 158 starts off their OL, have just one starter back there. Auburn is 9-8 as a favorite under Malzahn, 7-3 vs spread in neutral field games- they’re 18-26 in non-SEC games since ’08. Junior QB has made two starts; they’ve got three starters (60 starts) back on OL.

UCLA (-20) won 28-20 at Virginia LY; Bruins have 18 starters back but lost their QB- their 131 returning starts on OL is most in county. Since 2012, UCLA is 8-6 as a home favorite; they failed to cover its last four non-league games. Virginia is 9-6 in last 15 games as a dog, covering six of last eight non-ACC games; Cavaliers have four starters back on OL (68 starts) but their junior QB has made only three starters in his career.

Since 2005, Notre Dame is 18-31-3 as a home favorite; they’re 8-13 vs Power 5 teams, 12-18 in last 30 games as a favorite anywhere. Irish have three starters (68 starts) back on OL but a new QB who started only one game LY. Texas are 3-5 SU in last eight games away from Austin; they’re 5-11 as an underdog since ’06, 10-12 in last 22 road games. Longhorns are 3-4 as a road dog since ’11; their junior QB has made 12 starts.

Wisconsin has its third HC in four years but has a senior QB; Badgers covered five of last seven as an underdog- they’re 7-3 in last ten games out of conference. Only two of their top 10 on OL are seniors- they have 58 starts back on OL (6 of top 10 back). Alabama is 7-12 vs spread in last 19 non-SEC games, 9-4 in last 13 neutral games; Tide has new QB, three new starters on OL (40 starts)- they lost eight starters on offense.

Notes on other games………

— Baylor is breaking in new QB but has 106 starts back on OL; they’ve beaten SMU 59-24/45-0 in last two meetings. Bears are just 3-7-1 in last 11 tries as road favorite. Mustangs have new coach, but whole OL back.

— Georgia State is favored for second time ever despite being 2-33 last three years with a -49 turnover ratio. This is Charlotte’s first year as a D-I team; they’ve got four starters back on OL and a vet (24 starts) QB.

— Michigan State hosts Oregon next, could be looking ahead, but State is 16-3-1 as road favorite since ’07- they’ve got four starters back on OL and a senior QB (26 starts). WMU is 3-8-1 in last 12 tries as home dog.

— Illinois had rough offseason; they’re 6-12 in last 18 tries as favorite at home (4-7 with Beckman). Kent State has four starters back on OL and vet QB (21 starts); since ’07, they’re 16-21 as a road underdog.

— Eastern Michigan lost 17-3 at Old Dominion LY; outgained by 152 yards; Eagles are 11-21 as home underdogs since ’06, 4-8 in non-MAC games. ODU has new QB but four starters back on OL.

— Florida has a new QB, new coach, very thin OL; two freshmen, two sophs could start- they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as a HF. New Mexico State is 2-13-1 in last sixteen games as a road underdog.

— Penn State (-12) beat Temple 30-13 LY, running ball for 254 yards; Lions are 2-6 as road favorite since 2011. Since ’05, Temple is 17-10-1 as a home dog– they have all 11 starters back on defense.

— Florida Atlantic is 14-4 in last 18 games as a road dog; they crushed Tulsa 50-21 (even) LY, averaging 14.8 ypa, outgaining Tulsa 518-363. Tulsa covered once in its last seven games as a home favorite.

— Since 2012, Troy is 7-5-2 as a road underdog; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine non-league games. NC State is 4-5 as home fave under Doeren; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine non-ACC games.

— Georgia Southern is 6-1 as road underdog since ’10; they lost four of LY’s starters from OL. West Virginia is 5-12 as home favorite since ’11; their QB has started only two games.

— Florida State lost 164 starts off its OL, QB who was 27-1; ;they were 1-6 as home favorite LY. Texas State is 12-7 in last 19 games as a home underdog; they covered seven of last nine non-league games.

— Mississippi State plays LSU next week; they’re 8-4-1 as road faves under Mullen. Bulldogs lost 114 starts off LY’s OL. Since ’09, Southern Miss 9-17-1 out of conference, 1-6 in last seven as a home dog.

— USC has senior QB with 27 starts, but they’re 6-14 vs spread in last 20 non-Pac-12 games- theya also have whole OL back. Arkansas State is 8-4 in last 12 games as road dog- they have a senior QB (13 starts).

— Purdue is 7-point dog to a MAC team? Boilers are 4-5 as road dogs in Hazell era, 9-13 in last 22 non-league games. Marshall is 9-3-1 as home favorite since ’13 but has new QB– they’re 12-5-1 out of conference.