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Reply To: PREVIEW ALL MLB Games, articles, info, etc, Saturday 9/5/15

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dave essler

Saturday MLB Thoughts

D-Backs-Cubs: Tough to get in front of Arrieta – but he did throw a ton of pitches in that no-no against the Dodgers. The last time he threw that many, the next game was the ONLY game he’s allowed runs in some time. Goldschmidt should be back but Aaron Hill is questionable. Ray has been better on the road – but Wrigley’s dimensions may cause the same issues Chase Field does – so I can’t take AZ here. Lean under – somewhat “ballpark inflated” total, perhaps.

Pirates-Cardinals: Tough to ignore the fact that even with Morton the Pirates are +130, which would preclude me from laying the price with the Cardinals. The Pirates haven’t played well coming in but are very good against LHP so if McCutcheon is healthy, and they’re resting Walker on Friday – perhaps the Pirates. But, if the weather and the umpire are right, over.

Giants-Rockies: San Francisco has been in semi free-fall mode while the Rockies have apparently woken up. I’m not sure Peavy is the best option to stop that – so unless the Giants rally from the early 2-0 deficit Friday AND use little pen, I’ll take the Rockies, again.

Dodgers-Padres: Again, I can’t take Alex Wood – simply because we’ve played the Padres against LHP more often than not. Ross is obviously the Padres’ best option, so barring any Friday fiasco – the Padres.

Rays-Yankees: New York might have their mojo back now – putting up early runs on Odorizzi and beginning an lengthy AL East homestand where they know they can distance themselves in the Wild Card race at least. Eovaldi has been better at home, and although we do like Moore, I’m not sure with the Rays inconsistent bullpen I can take the generous price.

Tigers-Indians: You have to like Salazar and the Indians, but my how times have changed, installing them as -150 road favorites. Simon is at least capable – so we’ll see what the Tigers RL is going for. I am not laying that price with the Indians, who are capable of anything – we want consistent teams that have real reasons to play if we’re using real money.

Twins-Astros: This one looks easy – under. McCullers should, as a RHP, keep the Twins off the board for the most part. Santana is quite capable, as we found out last week – and the Astros haven’t seen him – much. This looks like an even better F5 under bet.

White Sox-Royals: Both teams are typically at their worst against left handed pitching – so my instinct is to play the under.

Oakland-Seattle: Yes, Felix has some of hie mojo back – but on the road against a team that’s seen tons of him I’d have to take the A’s at that price. Neither bullpen is worth much – but both starters should last long enough to make the under a viable option.

Angels-Rangers: I thought Weaver and the Angels would open at more than -120. I guess I am stuck in July when that price clearly would have been closer to -150. At 7.5 it’d be tempting to look at the over, but instinct says let it go to 8 and take the under.