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Game #661 – *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +3.5 @ Michigan State @ 6:30 ET
Some will look at this game and say that Michigan State is in bounce back mode and they will bounce back due to the recent defeats and that the Spartans haven’t looked this bad in a long time so coach Tom Izzo will have them ready to go and to get back on track. However, I see this game much differently and love the line value here with the road dog. There is tremendous pressure on the Spartans right now. Michigan State needs a win and they need it badly and this is putting a lot of stress on a team that hasn’t exactly responded well to stress this season. Just look at all the tight losses the Spartans have had and you will see they don’t do well in crunch time. That said, to be getting 3.5 points here with the better team and a team that is also seeking revenge is absolutely a huge value. Last year in the conference tourney the Terrapins lost to the Spartans and you can bet they had this rematch circled on their calendars. Maryland had won the two regular season meetings between the teams and that, of course, included a win at Michigan State so they certainly won’t be intimidated by playing here on Saturday evening. The Terps look much improved since the last meeting between these teams while the Spartans continue to struggle and just haven’t shown the same defensive skills and rebounding strength that prior Spartans teams have shown. That doesn’t bode well for Michigan State getting by one of the top teams in the country Saturday evening. The past three seasons Maryland is 17-8 ATS in games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 149.5 points. The Terps are also 12-6 ATS in Saturday games the past three seasons. This season Maryland is 4-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record and I certainly expect them to be at their best in this huge Big 10 battle. The past three seasons Michigan State is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in Big 10 games this season and 0-3 ATS when off of a loss to a conference foe. In other words, don’t look for the bounce back here as the struggles for Sparty are likely to continue. Grab the generous points with the Terrapins!