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#2911
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Keymaster

DAVE ESSLER

MLB Tuesday

Mets-Nationals: How often can you get Matt Harvey at -110 – that’s the question. You guys know I rarely back Zimmerman. The Nationals have got to be mentally close to done, losing to the Mets Monday and being a full five games back. Desperate times for a team people had penciled into the World Series in June. We said Sunday night we thought the Mets were the value side against Max and we were right about that.

Miami-Brewers: We said last night we liked Davies because the Fish just shouldn’t be that heavy a favorite to anyone, and now there’ a .50 difference in this line, mainly because of Jungmann, who we do like. Tough to now take the Brewers as road favorites, but even they aren’t good enough to keep beating Miami. Like the under here.

Pirates-Reds: Hard to fathom that Liriano is only -130 (which came down from the opener) to the Reds – but Iglesias has proven to be the real deal. One would have to like the under here, I would think.

Chicago-St. Louis: I am a little surprised Hammel is +140 or so – that’s a bit steep, even for Wacha, who did give up four runs to the Giants at home last outing. The Cardinal bullpen has been under performing of late as well, and so has the Cubs, so any runs may come late – F5 under. Hammel did lose badly in St. Louis earlier this season and hasn’t pitched well lately – but I doubt I could take St. Louis at that price. That’s just me.

Colorado-San Diego: Rea hasn’t done much to warrant being a -130 favorite, IMO. Gray hasn’t done much to warrant being bet ON – but clearly Colorado has the better bats – but with Rea no pitching very deep I have to think this might go over.

Rays-Tigers: I guess the Tigers are probably on auto-fade, although they beat Smyly and the Rays on Monday afternoon. Ramirez hasn’t not been the same pitcher on the road (4.14 ERA) but he’s been winning, so getting run support and perhaps this one goes over as well. Tigers’ bullpen is what it is – and they Rays have a tremendous W/L record against LHP – let alone Boyd’s sick (in a bad way) numbers.

Baltimore-New York: At first glance Gausman at +150 (or the RL) might appear to be the value side. We do know that although the Orioles are dead in the water, they ARE capable of putting up runs. Tanaka beat the Orioles back in JUly at Yankee Stadium, but did give up three home runs, so I wouldn’t be too hasty to lay that -165 or whatever.

Toronto-Boston: I’d love to fade Dickey at Boston, but I bet on Boston when Owens went out last week, lasting about an inning. I suppose he could revert back to “normal” but my money isn’t betting on it, and the over looks entirely too easy, but it’s over 10 now, or probably never.

Cleveland-Chicago: Carassco has been on fire, only giving up more than two earned runs once since July 6th. But, that “once” was against these White Sox, so it’s either motivation for Carassco or confidence for Chicago. Since we typically fae the Indians against left handed pitching and take the White Sox against right handed pitching – Chicago or nothing pending confirmation.

Twins-Royals: It’s just tough for me to take the Twins on the road against a right handed pitcher, although Volquez has been getting lit up, so perhaps if the RL is doable it’s an option.

Oakland-Houston: On of the best pitchers in baseball (Gray) with a team going nowhere against a team going somewhere and a pitcher (Kazmir) who was with the A’s not long ago. I am very tempted to take Oakland here, at least the F5 because we don’t trust their bullpen, and since the Astros score via the home run more often than not – and they’re in perhaps the least hitter-friendly park in baseball.