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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 2/20/16

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Poison Ivy
By Marc Lawrence

With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.

It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.

What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these affairs no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.

Creaky Double Digit Chalk

According to our database the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 58-90-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season in games thru 2/13/16.

Even worse, double-digit favs with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 20-42 ATS.

Digging deeper, if these tired double-digit hosts with a .687 or greater win percentage are facing an opponent off back-to-back losses they fare more like high school dropouts, going a paltry 3-20 ATS.

Fool Me Twice

Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.

That’s confirmed by a 53-39-2 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are in the road, including 41-21-2 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.

Better yet, bring these guys in with a lukewarm win percentage of .375 or less in this role and they automatically make the Dean’s List, going 27-9 ATS, including 17-3 ATS when facing a host off back-to-back wins.

Triskaidekaphobia Road

Out third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road as dogs off a loss of 13 or more points.

Dress them up as road dogs off a loss in this role and they are 41-24 ATS.

Better yet, bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 36-14 ATS, including 20-5 ATS when facing a foe that was favored by 15 or more points in its previous game.

There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.

Keep an eye on this hypothesis throughout the end of the Ivy League campaign. Remember, should you feel a strange itch coming on, don’t scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.