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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 2/20/16

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Rusty Home ‘Dogs
By Marc Lawrence

Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is ferreting out live dogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good. Thus, understandably, my pet handicapping philosophy is searching for live dogs in winning situations.

There are, however, certain dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with faulty defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter.

On the opposite end of fatigue are teams who become a bit too rusty due to an excessive amount of time off. This rule especially holds true to teams in College Basketball. We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…

COLLEGE HOOPS HOME DOGS WITH 7 OR MORE DAYS OF REST TURN TO RUST

Too much rest tends to make teams lethargic.

That’s confirmed by the fact that Division-1 College Basketball teams playing at home as conference dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 86-110-4 ATS since 1990.

That’s a dismal 43.8% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material. Worse…

RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES SIMPLY DON’T CARE

Lethargic home dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.

Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at conference home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 28-47-1 ATS since 1990.

Even worse…

POOR RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES REALLY DISAPPEAR

There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.

That is born out by the fact that these rusty home dogs with a losing record, playing off back-to-back losses against well-rested (three or more days of rest) conference opponents are just 8-32-1 ATS since 1990.

Worse, these pacified puppies are a paltry 1-19 ATS in this role if they scored more than 60 points in their last game!

There you have it. Another solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later this month.

Enjoy the games and remember to let sleeping dogs lie.