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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 2/20/16

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Dave Essler | CBB Sides – Saturday, Feb 20 2016 8:30PM

642 Indiana -3.0(-120) vs 641 Purdue
‘Triple-dime bet’

Analysis: I’ll buy it now – get it out early – reason it in the morning – and see WTH happens. I obviously think -4 is still fine, and so do the overnight bettors. Don’t look now, but the storied Hoosier program is in control of it’s own destiny in the Big Ten. It’s not the Spartans, Wolverines, Buckeyes, or even Iowa – it’s Indiana. I almost think with the history, the momentum – and this huge in-state rivalry, that that’s enough. However, let’s look further. Indiana has NOT lost at home this season, they’re tied with Iowa atop the Conference standings, and have already beaten the Hawkeyes (they’ve got a game left). This is their next-to-last home game, with no look-ahead, as they play Illinois next. Plus, Purdue beat Indiana TWICE last season (only by four at Indiana) and that’s almost motivation enough as well. They (Purdue) beat a struggling (at the time) Wisconsin team to start Conference play – but since that time have lost three road games, beating only Rutgers and the Gophers (by four). I like the Boilermakers and Hammons, and am paying homage to their size – however Indiana is a three-point shooting team at home, so scoring ought not be a problem. Indiana has had issues turning the ball over – but Purdue is last in the Conference in creating them – relying mainly on their length for defense, which isn’t going to work here. Purdue has had some issues protecting the ball (never a good thing on the road) – Indiana is a great FT shooting team – which saves is if it’s close down the stretch. I Çndiana’ offense has been more efficient in Big Ten play, as has their defense. And I’ll take Crean over Painter – no disrespect to Matt, but they are two years removed from back to back losing seasons. Hammons alone cannot overcome everything.