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Reply To: CBB • Saturday Service Plays • 2/20/16

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2-Unit Play. Take #525 Miami (+7.5)
over North Carolina
(1 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
UNC has to really be deflated. They blew that game against Duke this week and I think that loss is going to carry over into this game with Miami. The Hurricanes are a Top 15 team and are very focused. North Carolina is a team that has been struggling for weeks and they are not good enough to be laying this type of number. Take the points here and watch out for another upset in Chapel Hill.

2-Unit Play. Take #557 Florida State (-2.5)
over Virginia Tech
(3 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
Florida State is going to be hot today. This is a good team that hasn’t played to its potential. Virginia Tech is a young team that played better than people thought. But the Hokies have really taken their knocks. They are just 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall and most of those losses have been blowouts. Florida State got a tongue-lashing from their coach after a terrible effort against Georgia Tech led to a third straight loss. Leonard Hamilton is a good coach and I think he got through to his players. I think Florida State comes to play today and they are favored for a reason.

5-Unit Play. Take #593 UNC-Wilmington (-2.5)
over Charleston
(6 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
Blowout! Blowout! This game shouldn’t be close. Wilmington has beaten Charleston five straight times. The last three times have all been blowouts and Wilmington won the first meeting this season by 10 points. UNC-W is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and they are due for a bounce back winner after a loss at William & Mary. Wilmington is 9-1 in its last 10 games and they are probably the best team in this very competitive conference. The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight league games and are 10-4 ATS after they don’t cover the spread. This has been a strong bounce back team. Charleston is just 19-39 ATS in its last 60 home games. They are 18-40 ATS in their last 58 games overall and just 16-34 ATS in their last 50 conference games. I have Wilmington by 13 here.

3-Unit Play. Take #648 Oregon (-12)
over Oregon State
(10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
This line opened at 9.5 and has been bet up to 12. That tells me where the sharp money is going and this one should be a total blowout. Oregon State pulled the upset in the first meeting. But that isn’t going to happen here in this big rivalry game. Oregon is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They did not play well last week while getting swept in California. They will make up for it this weekend with a big win.

5-Unit Play. Take #660 UC-Irvine (- 4)
over Hawaii
(11:30 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
This is a huge game in the Big West! These are the two best teams in this conference and this game could decide the regular season title. And I think that it is going to go to the home team. These two teams played last week. Hawaii blew out UC-Irvine down in Honolulu, winning 74-52. That was an embarrassing loss for an Irvine team that won the league last year. I think they are going to get their revenge today now that they are back at home. Irvine has only lost one home game all year and the favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Irvine is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games and this one means a lot to them. The Anteaters will be up for this one and will play a great game. I see them winning this one by double-digits and returning the favor.

5-Unit Play. Take #649 Cal-Northridge (+7.5)
over Cal Poly
(10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
This is too many points for Cal Poly to lay. They proved that this week when they nearly lost to UC-Davis as a nine-point favorite. Poly is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games and they are just 10-15 on the season. Northridge has played back-to-back tough games against UC-Irvine and Hawaii. They covered the number in both games and this is a Northridge team that is really improving late in the season. Go back and look at their schedule. Over the last month this team has lost to the best teams in the conference. But they have beaten the other lower teams that they have faced. Coach Reggie Theus doesn’t have the horses yet to run his system. But he is a good coach getting the most out of his team. They will keep it close and could even pull the upset tonight.

3-Unit Play. Take #697 Idaho State (-1.5)
over Southern Utah
(9 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 20)
Southern Utah is one of the worst teams in all of college basketball. They have been one of the worst bets in college basketball this year. They are just 5-17 ATS this season and Idaho State beat them by 19 points in the first matchup in late January. Idaho State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and this team is peaking. Southern Utah has lost nine straight. They played really well against Weber State this week and only lost by four points. But I think they will have a letdown after playing the top team in the conference tight. I’m going with the Bengals in this one.