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Thursday MLB Free Pick
4:10 pm New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
The Pick OVER 8 -115
Ageless Colon on Quite a Streak
Bartolo Conlon is pitching like a little kid – not a 42 year old man. He’s had the best streak of his career and he puts it on the line today. Colon has gone 25 straight scoreless innings over his last 4 appearances, 3 of them starts. Saturday he put a cherry on the top with a complete game shutout.
Miller’s Middle Name Should Be Bad Luck
I don’t think there is a pitcher who has experienced the pain of Shelby Miller this season. He has not won a game in his last 20 starts. Pretty amazing for a guy with a 2.81 era. Miller has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 20 of his 28 starts.
Colon is 13-11 with a 4.21 era. He started off the season strong, took a big performance dip, and has come on strong. Colon has been far less effective on the road going 6-7 with a reasonably high era of 4.62. His era in his last 3 starts is, of course, zero. Colon likes to pitch against Atlanta. He’s 7-2 with a 2.53 era against the Braves. In 3 starts this year he has given up 8 runs and 19 hits in 19 innings while going 3-0. Colon is 3-1 with a 2.55 era in his last 7 games and 4-7 with a 3.97 era in his last 15. His August era was 2.81 and his September era is 0.00. I guess he found a second wind. Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman both work over Colon pretty good – freeman at .444 and Simmons at .529. The Braves only have 2 HR against him.
Miller is 5-13 with a 2.86 era. His era is even better at home at 2.21 but his record is a sorrowful 2-7. Miller has had issues in 2 of his last 3 starts raising his era in his last 3 games to 6. Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson and David Wright have all punished Miller – all of them hitting .500 against him. The Mets have 2 home runs off Miller. He’s 0-5 in his last 7 games with a 3.95 era. He’s 0-11 in his last 15 games with a 3.53 era. He’s 3-12 at night with a 3.06 era. Right handers hit just .201 against him. He’s 0-1 versus the Mets with a 3.50 era.
The Mets average 4.2 runs per game and give up 3.8 They score 4.2 on the road and 4.3 vs right handed pitchers. They have bolted to 6.9 runs per game in their last 7. They score 4.1 at night and 4.9 in division. Their recent scoring binge has come against the Phillies, Marlins and Nats.
Atlanta averages only 3.6 runs per game but gives up 4.8. They average 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 versus right handers. They’ve scored just 2.7 runs per game in their last 7 playing Philadelphia, Washington and the Marlins. They score only 3.5 runs at night and 3.7 in division.
Odds and Ends
The Mets are a tricky team. Despite their reputation as a pitcher heavy club, they are a dead over team.. They have gone over in 71 and under in 61. The Mets are 3-1 to the over as a road favorite. They are 37-28 to the over on the road. They are 5-2 over in September. They are 35-22 to the over against their division. They are 58-43 to the over against RHP. They are 63-43 to the over when playing teams with losing records. The only they place they are about 50-50 is playing at night.
Atlanta is also a pretty dead over team. The Braves go over 72 and under 59 for the season. At home they are 34-25 to the over. In September they are 5-2 to the over. They are 35-21 to the over against division foes. They are 58-48 to the over against RHP. They are 43-36 to the over against teams with winning records.
The numbers are ridiculous in this game. The fact that the over is only 7.5 is a credit to Colon and Miller. Obviously the linesmakers are endorsing Colon’s 25 inning scoreless streak and forgetting about his 4.62 era on the road. Likewise, they are endorsing Miller’s 2.81 era for the season even though his era is 6.00 in his last 3 starts. They may well be right, but I’m going with the OVER 8.
The Pick OVER 8 -115