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Reply To: CBB • Sunday Service Plays • 2/21/16

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Dave Essler | CBB Sides – Sunday, Feb 21 2016 7:00PM

854 Houston -4.0(-110) vs 853 Temple
‘Triple-dime bet’

Analysis: I do think waiting might get us a better number – but as usual want these out as soon as we can. Temple was crushed at home by the Cougars at home this season, so my only overnight hesitation was whether or not the Owls would be in revenge mode. We know they will, of course – but this is a situation and a matchup issue, IMO. Temple shot 3-23 in that last game from behind the are, and the Owls ARE a streaky shooting team. But, the Cougars are 7th in the nation in defending the perimeter, allowing less than a 30% make rate. Conversely Houston does much more damage offensively inside, which is where Temple’s defensive vulnerability shows up. Temple doesn’t get to the FT line very often – nor do they shoot well from it. Houston’s FT % isn’t tremendous, but they do get there more – which should add up. Houston beat Tulsa badly at home, LSU at home, Memphis, and even SMU. They can beat Temple. The Owls on the road – beat a UConn team that beat themselves (we were on Uconn, I know) – lost at Memphis, lost at a terrible ECU team, and struggled to beat both UCF and USF. If they finally played well enough on the road, great – but history says not tonight. Houston has a reasonable length advantage – so the only way Temple wins is to get super hot from deep, and back to the beginning, Houston a Äs a GREAT perimeter defense – the matchup “Trumps” the situation here.