STEVE MERRIL
Screen Shot Thursday
Cubs @ Phillies — Chicago’s Jake Arrieta has not allowed an earned run in each of his last four starts. Arrieta’s last loss came against the Phillies. Overall, Arrieta is 18-6 with a 2.03 ERA on the season. Philadelphia’s Adam Morgan is 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA. The southpaw has excellent control; he has not walked a batter in four straight starts. The Cubs are only hitting .235 in 30 games against left-handed starters. I lean Under 7.5 (-125) in this game.
Brewers @ Pirates — A.J. Burnett comes off the disabled list to make his first start since July 30th. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in ten home starts. Burnett has been pretty bad since the All-Star break, allowing 19 runs and 32 hits over a 16 inning span. Burnett’s lone start this year against Milwaukee came at home back in June when he gave up 1 run and five hits in seven innings of work. The Pirates are too big of a favorite in this game, so taking the Brewers (+160 or more) provides some value.
Mets @ Braves — Bartolo Colon has thrown 25 straight scoreless innings entering this game against Atlanta. The Braves’ offense is only hitting .252 while averaging 3.4 runs per game in their last seven games. Shelby Miller gets the start for Atlanta; he has a 2.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home. Miller has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 20 of his 28 starts. I lean Under 7.5 (+100) in this game.
Tigers @ Indians — Detroit has won 20 of their last 26 games in Cleveland, including 5 of 6 games this season. They are sending Alfredo Simon to the mound where he is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four outings against the Indians. The righty just threw seven shutout innings against Cleveland last Saturday at home. For some perspective, Simon has a combined 5.48 ERA against the rest of the teams in the Majors. Detroit (+180) holds a lot of value.