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Reply To: MLB • Info Season 2016 – 2017 •

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Keymaster

DAVE COKIN

SAN DIEGO PADRES Win Total

Take: PADRES Under 73.5

2015 turned out to be a big disappointment for Padres fans. The organization rolled the dice in an effort to contend, and let’s just say things didn’t work out very well. No high expectations this time around, as is pretty clear by the 73.5 win option that’s now available.

I’m looking at the projected opening day roster for the 2016 Padres and having a great deal of trouble comprehending how they’ll win even that many games. This is a really bad looking baseball team, and my guess it that they’re going to get worse as the season wears on. That’s because the Padres are almost going to be forced to do some selling at the deadline. They should have done that last summer, and didn’t. Now they might not have any choice.

The Padres have one sure thing in their rotation in Tyson Ross. But Ross is a sure thing #3 starting pitcher, not a staff ace. He has the stuff to become one, and maybe he outs it all together this season. But Ross, while a very talented guy, is a borderline #2 right now. James Shields could bounce back to a #2 level, but that’s very much in question as he’s now 34 and has logged lots of innings. Andrew Cashner was a tremendous tease with that dynamite fastball. But he’s now 29, the secondary stuff doesn’t wow anyone, and I think Cashner needs a change in scenery.

As for the position players, “ugh” is probably the best one-word assessment I can come up with. This is a very bad looking lineup. In viewing one of the projection sets for the Padres, Wil Myers was the top graded WAR player at 2.0. Matt Kemp was next at 1.9, and I think my hair stylist was third. She’s 63 and in pretty much the same shape I’m in, so that kind of tells you what I think about the likely everyday lineup for the Friars.

I don’t think it’s inconceivable that this Padres team flirts with triple digit losses in 2016. They’re light years behind the Giants and Dodgers on paper, and probably the Diamondbacks as well. The Rockies are likely to be lousy again, but I’ve even got them ahead of San Diego.

This is my first actual bet of the 2016 MLB season, and it’s on the Padres Under 73.5 wins.