Coach Fletcher’s Friday Free MLB Pick
6:40 pm Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona D-Backs
The Pick Los Angeles Dodgers -130
Wood Very Underrated on the Mound
Alex Wood has had a fine year for the Dodgers. He’s one of the league’s better pitcher that nobody knows. Robbie Ray started well, but he has plummeted of late.
The Pitchers
Wood, Dodgers
Under the radar this year is Alex Wood. He’s 10-9 with a 3.51 era. He’s 7-5 on the road with a 2.96 era. In his last 3 Wood is 1-1 with a 1.45 era. He’s only allowed 3 runs and 15 hits in his last 18 2/3. Wood also had his best start of the season against the D-Backs when he was a Brave. He went 8 innings vs the D-Backs allowing 1 run. Wood has been extremely consistent this year. He was 3-3 with a 3.43 era after 7. He was 6-5 with a 3.48 era after 15 games. For the Dodgers he has gone 3-3 with a 3.43 era. Since he’s been a Dodger LH have hit just .152 against him. RH are hitting .273. Wood is 1-1 vs the D-Backs with a 1.80 era.
Ray, D-Backs
Ray is 3-11 with a 3.72 era. However, his low era is the result of a good start. Lately he hasn’t been too good. His is 0-5 at home with a 5.60 era and he is 0-2 in his last 3 starts with a 5.93 era. He’s 0-2 vs the Dodgers with a 4.26 era. Ray’s last win came on July 7. He’s certainly fallen on hard times going 0-6 with a 5.66 era in his last 7. He’s 2-10 in his last 15 with a 4.18 era.
The Bullpens
Dodgers – 4.99 era on road ; 40 saves, 19 blown saves
D-Backs – 3.50 era at home ; 37 saves, 18 blown saves
I’ve said this before. If the Dodgers don’t make it to the World Series this year they can point a finger directly at the bullpen. A team that throws money around like nothing can’t assemble a decent pen.
The Hitters
Dodgers
The Dodgers score 4.1 runs per game. Like the Cards, they are a team based on power hitting and pitching. Mostly pitching. The LAD score 4.0 on the road. They drop to 3.8 vs LHP. They have averaged 5.3 in their last 7. They score 4.3 at night and 4.4 in division play.
D-Backs
D-Backs score 4.4 runs per game. But when we bring pitching into the equation, which we will in Odds and Ends, their pitching doesn’t pass the smell test. They are very consistent and score 4.4 runs per game on the road, versus left handed pitchers and on grass. They scored only 3.3 runs per game in their last 7. Hey score 4.6 at night and 4.7 in division.
Odds and Ends
Dodgers
While the Dodgers score just 4.1 runs per game they allow only 3.6. That gives them a run differential of 0.5 per game to the plus side. The Dodgers are not a good road team going just 33-38. They have gone 7-2 in September and they are 35-21 in division. They are 59-45 at night. They are 18-1`4vs LHP and 33-23 after a loss. They are 62-37 against teams with losing records. The Dodgers hit 1.18 HR per game and have the 2nd best on base % in MLB at .328.
D-Backs
While the D-backs score 4.4 runs per game they give up 4.4 runs per game. They are a horrible 8-19 as home dogs. They are just 33-36 at home. They are 4-5 in September. They are 28-29 against their division and 51-51 at night. They are 15-19 vs LHP and only 28-36 following a win. They are 30-61 against teams with winning records and only 6-20 vs teams with winning records the 2nd half. The D-Backs hit 0.92 HR per game and rank 7th in MLB on base % at .324.
Clearly the Dodgers are the play. They have advantages everywhere but the bullpen.
Coach’s Conclusion:
I’m surprised that the LAD are only -130 in this game. It appears to me that they have big edges all around. Wood has been pitching in great form and Ray is going no where. Neither are the D-backs.
The Pick Los Angeles Dodgers -130