Books asking too much money for Mayweather, better value in round props
By MMAODDSBREAKER
Floyd Mayweather Jr. puts the finishing touches (maybe?) on his Hall of Fame career this weekend, facing former WBC World Champion Andre Berto at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mayweather (48-0) has been criticized for the choice of Berto (30-3) as an opponent, and the books have installed him as a massive favorite, priced at -2000 currently, with the comeback on Berto at +1250.
With a line like that, can you really think to betting the outright winner market? After all, a -2,000 price tag means you must put $2,000 on the line to win back $100. And even the most confident Mayweather fans must be thinking why even bother?
However, despite the lack of value in this bout, it’s worth looking at the alternative bets for Saturday’s fight. Normally, props pop up at the books for a fight pretty close to the day of the contest, but with a fight of this magnitude, the books have a slew of betting odds up already. That’s enough time for a shrewd betttor to find some value on the table.
The round total for this bout is set at 11.5, with the Over paying -220 and the Under coming back at +180. There’s a reason why wagering on the fight to go the distance is still asking such a high price. Mayweather will use speed and prowess to elude Berto, who will swing and miss, for 12 rounds en route to a unanimous decision.
Mayweather’s last six fights have gone to the cards and the streak of fights going the distance extends itself back to December of 2007 – if you exclude Mayweather’s 2011 cheap shot KO of Victor Ortiz. He has not stopped anybody since punishing Ricky Hatton.
The big fear is that Mayweather may change his stripes and try to go out with a KO, but the fact is that’s just not his style and he won’t risk a freak KO loss by sticking his neck out there. With Berto coming in aggressive, this fight could resemble the Maidana fights, which despite the props given to the Argentine, were both decision victories by Mayweather.
Since moving up to welterweight more than eight years ago, Mayweather hasn’t shown any power to speak of, so it’s safe to say it’s going to go the distance. As of this writing, Mayweather to win by decision is paying (-193).