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2015 College Football
Saturday’s top 13 games
Temple sacked Hackenberg ten times LW in 27-10 win that didn’t seem like an upset (TY 317-191). Since ’09, Owls are 13-7 as road underdogs, but they’ve lost last five games with Cincinnati (four of five by 8+ pts). Road team covered last five series games. Bearcats are 13-9-1 as a home favorite since ’11, 16-6-1 in last 23 conference games. Temple lost last two visits here, 38-20/30-24.
Mississippi State won 34-29 at LSU LY, ending 14-game series skid; Bulldogs are 1-4 vs spread in last five series games- they had solid win at Southern Miss last week, while LSU got rained out after 5:00, with boh offese/defense getting one series before lightning struck. Tigers won last seven visits to Starkville (6-1 vs spread) but are inexperienced at QB- they’re 3-5 as road favorites since ’12. MSU covered three of last four as a home underdog.
Short week for Marshall after they beat Purdue Sunday, scoring pair of defensive TDs; underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in their last nine games with Ohio– Bobcats won three of last four series games, winning 34-31/44-7 in last two played in Athens, but Herd gained 704 yards in LY’s 44-14 win, but LY’s QB Cato (448 PY LY) is in CFL now. Marshall is 4-1 as a road underdog the last 3+ years.
Minnesota (+14) was outgained 449-341 LW in 23-17 home loss to #3 TCU; since ’05, Gophers are 8-6 as road favorites. First real test for Colorado State under new coach Bobo; since ’08, Rams are 12-6 as home underdogs- they’ve got 15 starters back but have new QB. CSU is 9-2 vs spread in last 11 non-league games. Minnesota is 11-8 in non-conference games under Kill.
BYU lost its star QB for year last week at Nebraska, then won game on Hail Mary on last play of game. Home side won all three series games; Boise lost 37-20 (+7) in last visit here they gained 637 TY on 55-30 win at home vs BYU LY. Since ’08, Broncos are 25-11 as road faves, BYU is 3-3 as home underdog over last decade. Boise ran for 185 yards in 16-13 win over Washington (16-0 at half), holding Huskies to 179 yards.
Virginia gave up 351 passing yards to a frosh QB in 34-16 loss at UCLA in is opener; Cavaliers are 5-2-1 in last eight tries as home underdog, 6-2 in last eight non-ACC games. Notre Dame is 4-7 as road favorite under Kelly; they crushed Texas 38-3 LW, running for 214 yards, holding UT to 8 first downs and 163 yards. Zaire was 19-23/313 passing last week; ND had 30 first downs in the easy win.
Underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in last 14 Iowa-Iowa State games, as last four series games were all decided by 6 or less points. Hawkeyes are 3-5 in last eight visits here (dogs 4-3 vs spread in last 7 here). Since ’12, Iowa is 5-0 as a road favorite, but they’re 7-12 in last 19 non-conference tilts. Since ’12, Cyclones are 4-7-2 as home underdogs. State had 337-275 edge in TY in LY’s game, rallying back from down 14-3 at half.
Memphis is 3-2 as road favorite since 2013; from ’06-’12, they were 0-0 as road favorites, thats how far their program has risen. Tigers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-conference games. Kansas is 11-6 as a home dog since ’11, 2-7 in last nine non-league games; they lost 41-38 at home last week to I-AA South Dakota State, despite outgaining them by 113 yards (576-463). Jayhawks were -2 in turnovers.
Arizona (-19) gained 507 yards in 35-28 home win over Nevada LY; in meeting before that, Wildcats (-8.5) won 49-48 in bowl game. Since ’06, Arizona is 6-10-1 as road favorite- they’re 3-2 under RichRod. Nevada is 6-3 as home underdog since 2010. Arizona scored two defensive TDs in 42-32 win over UTSA last week; Roadrunners outgained them 525-392 but committed 10 penalties for 114 yards.
South Carolina won 13 of last 15 games with Kentucky (underdogs 4-1-1 vs spread in last six); they lost 45-38 (-4) in Lexington LY but Wildcats lost last seven visits here (3-4 vs spread) with four of seven Ls by 15+ points. Carolina is 2-6 in last eight tries as HF; they have QB issues; in LW’s 17-13 win over UNC, they were 12-27 passing, using two QBs and two other guys playing QB in Wildcat formation.
Rutgers (+8) won 41-38 at Washington State LY, running ball for 214 yards but giving up 532 thru air. Since ’09, Scarlet Knights are 10-15 vs spread as home favorite, but 14-8 in non-league games. Wazzu lost to a I-AA team at home in rain last week, after leading 10-0 at half; they are 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road underdog. If Portland State ran ball for 233 yards last week, what will a I-A team do?
Oklahoma (-20) beat a very young Tennessee team 34-10 in Norman a year ago, but that was before Dobbs became Vols QB; Sooners had edge in yardage 454-313; they’re 9-6 vs spread on road since ’12, 11-5 in last 16 non-league games. Tennessee ran ball for 399 yards against Bowling Green last week, gaining 604 TY in 59-30 win- their pass defense wasn’t too great (BG had 433 PY). This should be a fun game to watch.
Oregon is an underdog for first time in its last 46 games; LY, they beat Michigan State 46-27 (-13) at home, outgaining Spartans 491-466 in a game that MSU led 24-18 at half. Ducks’ QB played I-AA ball for last three years; he got knocked silly by one of his former teammates in last week’s game, will play here. Michigan State (-19) won 37-24 at Western Michigan last week in good test; they have a senior QB (27 starts).
Rest of the card…….
— South Florida is 8-4 as road underdog under Taggart. Florida State was 1-6 as home favorite LY; they were 25-32/370 passing vs Sun Belt team last week in Golson’s FSU debut.
— Western Michigan is 9-4 vs spread on road under Fleck; Broncos lost 37-24 (+19) at home to Michigan State- they passed for 383 yards. TY in game was 383-452. Georgia Southern won last six home games.
— Since 2012, Penn State is 10-5 vs spread off a loss; they’re 11-6 as a HF since ’12. Lions gave up 10 sacks last week, were outgained by 126 yards at Temple. Since 2010, Buffalo is 8-14 as a road underdog.
— Army lost to I-AA Fordham last week; since 2011, they’re 1-12 as a road underdog. Cadets (+4.5) beat UConn 35-21 LY, running ball for 327 yards. UConn is 2-10 as a home fave, 5-13 in last 18 non-league tilts.
— Florida (-7) beat East Carolina 28-20 in a bowl LY; ECU was on the Florida 5-yard line with 1:20 left. Gators covered their last five non-SEC games, are 6-11 as a home favorite since ’12. Pirates are 7-10 as a road underdog uncer McNeill.
— Louisville is 13-4 vs spread off a loss; they’re 14-26 as home favorites since 2004. Cardinals open ACC play vs Clemson Thursday; they beat Houston 20-13 (-17) in last meeting in ’13. Cougars are 15-7-1 as road underdogs since ’05.
— Ole Miss opens SEC play with Alabama next; Rebels are 8-5-2 as HF under Freeze. Ole Miss beat Fresno 55-38/38-28 in its two meetings, last one was in ’11. Bulldogs are 17-8 as road underdogs since 2007.
— Wisconsin is 17-11 as home favorites since 2011; they’re 16-13 off a loss since ’05, 7-4 in last 11 non-conference games. Miami OH was 5-1 as road underdog LY, after being 9-19 the five years before that.
— Kansas State already lost QB Ertz for while; since ’05, they’re 5-11-1 as road favorite. QB Hubener came off bench last week, was 9-18/147 vs I-AA South Dakota. UTSA lost 42-32 at Arizona LW; they gained 525 yards in Tempe but gave up pair of defensive TDs.
— Ohio State is on very short week after decisive win at Va Tech; they’re loaded on offense, are 22-14 as home favorites since ’10. This is Jones’ first start in Columbus (5th overall). Hawai’i is 8-10 as road dog under Chow; they upset Colorado in their home opener.
— Syracuse won its last three games with Wake Forest by average score of 26-12; Deacons lost 13-0 in last visit here, are 11-22 as underdogs on road since ’04. Syracuse is 8-10 as a home favorite since ’10.
— Clemson opens ACC play with Louisville in Thursday, will be looking past Appalachian State team in first year of I-A play. Tigers are 22-16 as home favorites under Swinney. Nation-wide, home favorites are 13-9 vs spread so far this season.
— Since ’07, Missouri is 13-3 as road favorite, 13-5 in its non-conferece games. Mizzou (-21) waxed Arkansas State 41-19 at home in ’13; total yardage in game was only 495-435. Over last decade, ASU is 2-6 as a home underdog.
— Wyoming lost at home to I-AA North Dakota, is 13-point favorite vs Eastern Michigan, which lost 38-34 at home to Old Dominon, with a -3 turnover ratio proving fatal. Cowboys are 4-6 as home favorite since ’12. EMU is 5-14-1 as road dogs since ’12.
— Colorado is 4-0 as home favorite under MacIntyre; they looked bad in upset loss at Hawai’u last week. Buffs (-18) won 41-38 at UMass LY; they play rival Colorado State next week. Minutemen are 7-12 as a road underdog, since 2011.
— Since 2008, Oregon State is 19-9 as road underdog (0-3 LY); Beavers’ coach Anderson was at Wisconsin last two years- they didn’t play the Wolverines. Home debut as coach for Harbaugh- they were 14-11 as a home favorite under Hoke.
— Georgia Tech (-10) won 38-21 at Tulane LY; they could be looking ahead to next week’s Notre Dame game. Tech is 13-8-1 as home favorite since 2011. Tulane is 6-11-1 in non-league games, 7-8-1 as a road dog since 2012.
— Georgia is 16-2 in last 18 games with Vanderbilt (1-3 vs spread in last four); Dawgs won eight of last nine visits here- they lost last visit here in ’13. Since ’07, Georgia is 11-7 as road fave- they play So. Carolina next.
— Cal is 1-7 as home favorite since 2012; they play Texas/Washington on road next two games, better not look past San Diego State squad that is 7-6 as road dogs under Long. Aztecs are 8-13 in non-league games.
— Arkansas is a bully team; they covered last four games as home fave, their last six non-SEC games- their last eight wins are all by 17+ points. Toledo is 8-3 as road dog last three years; their game LW was cancelled by lightning, so this is their opener.
— Alabama is in Wisconsin/Ole Miss sandwich; might be tough to cover huge spread. Tide is 9-5 in last 14 games as home fave. MTSU is 13-20 as road underdog since ’07, 5-17 in last 22 non-conference games.
— Since 2010, Air Force is just 5-17 as home favorite. These teams have not met since ’97. San Jose State was 0-6 as road dogs LY after going 9-3 the previous three years. Spartans have ten starters back on offense.
— Akron (+21) upset Pitt 21-10 on road LY, outgaining them 382-349; Zips are 6-15 s home dogs since ’08, 2-7 under Bowden. Pitt is 3-5 in last eight games as road favorite, 9-13 in last 22 non-league games.
— Bowling Green gave up 604 yards last week, 399 on ground in 59-30 loss at Tennessee; Falcons are 22-14 as road dogs since ’06. Maryland is 7-9 as home favorite under Edsall, 13-10 in non-league games since ’10.
— North Texas (-3.5) was +5 in turnovers, hammered SMU 43-6 LY in Denton; Mean Green was 0-6 as road dogs LY- they’re one of few teams that didn’t play last week. Mustangs are 7-18-1 as home favorites since ’07- they failed to cover last eight non-conference games.
— Since ’11, Texas A&M is 10-14 as home favorite; they’re 16-21 out of conference since ’07. Ball State is 29-10 as a road dog since ’06, but they gave up 444 passing yards in 48-36 win over I-AA VMI last week, bad omen heading into SEC country.
— Texas Tech won 30-26 in El Paso LY, racking up 504 yards. Tech won last three games vs UTEP (0-3 vs spread), Red Raiders are 4-9-1 as HF since ’11, 11-8 in non-league games since ’10. Miners are 3-9 as road dog in two years under Kugler.
— Texas changed play caller after one game, so problems there; Horns are 12-17 as home favorite since ’09, 9-7 out of conference since ’11. This is first meeting with Rice since ’11. Owls lost 13 of 22 starters from LY; they’re 7-4 as road underdogs last three years.
— New Mexico State (-2) won 34-31 at Georgia State LY, after trailing in first half 17-0. Aggies got crushed at Florida last week (34-13 at half); they’re 5-7 as HF over last decade. Panthers are 8-2 as road dogs last two years; they lost 23-20 at home to Charlotte LW, despite +2 TO ratio.
— Nebraska lost on Hail Mary on last play last week, could take it out on South Alabama squad that is 9-7 as road dogs in four years they have been a I-A team. Huskers play Miami next; they’re 6-9 as HF since ’13, 10-6 in last 16 non-conference games.
— Indiana gave up 659 yards in 48-47 win over I-AA Southrn Illinois at home last week; since ’08, Hoosiers are 9-13 as home favorite, they are 12-15 in last 27 non-league games. FIU won as 17-point dog at UCF in its opener, outgaining Knights by 96 yards.
— USC pounded on Arkansas State LW; they play Stanford next week; Trojans are 5-2 as home favorites under Sarkisian, 7-14 in non-league tilts since ’10. Idaho was 6-0 as road dogs LY; they got whacked 45-28 at home by Ohio last week, giving up a defensive TD.
— Tulsa beat FAU 47-44 in OT last week, giving up 580 TY, surviving a -4 turnover ratio; since ’10, Hurricane is 10-7 as road dog- they failed to cover last eight non-league games. New Mexico is 5-2 as home favorite under Davie. Lobos have high profile game at Arizona State next week.
— UCF lost as 17-point home favorite to FIU last week; Stanford lost as 10-point favorite at Northwestern and plays USC next week. Cardinal is 7-3 off a loss under Shaw; they’re 7-5 as home favorite last two years. Since 2009, Knights are 15-7 off a loss (20-12 last 32 as road dog).
— UNLV covered easily as 22-point dog at Northern Illinois LW, now they’re 30-point home dog to UCLA team that clobbered Virginia in its opener. Bruins are 5-5 in last ten games as road favorite; they’re 9-4 in non-conference games under Mora.