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Reply To: NFL WEEK 1 – Previews, Articles, Info, etc, Sunday 9/13/15

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2015 NFL

Week 1
Steelers @ Patriots
— Pats are 5-0-1 vs spread as favorite of less than 9 points in their home opener; since ’07, they’re 23-14-1 as non-divisional home faves, 16-8 vs spread in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less points. Steelers lost last four road openers, all by 10+ points. Pats won five of last seven games with Pitt; average total in last nine series games is 54.7. Since ’97, Steelers are 1-8 as an underdog in its road openers. Over is 28-12 in Patriot home games the last five years. Since ’02, defending Super Bowl champ is 8-3-2 vs spread in next season’s opener. Dick LeBeau was forced out as Steelers’ DC; lot of changes in the Pittsburgh defense. Change isn’t always good.

Packers @ Bears— Green Bay won nine of last ten series games, winning last five series games, four by 7+ points. Pack started 0-1 last three years, giving up 30+ points in all three- seven of their last nine road openers went over total. Chicago has new coach in Fox; since ’12, they’re 1-5 as home underdogs, 9-16-1 as a single digit dog. Bears won five of last six home openers; three of last four went over total. Green Bay beat Bears 38-17/55-14 LY; they averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt in both games. Since ’07, Pack is 22-17 as road favorites, 13-7 vs NFC North rivals. How much will Rodgers miss Jordy Nelson, his #1 WR who is out for the year?

Chiefs @ Texans— Curious if addition of WR Maclin will help KC passing game; Chief WRs had zero TDs LY. Houston won last five home openers, covering four of them; four of the five wins were by 10+ points. Seven of last ten home openers stayed under. Chiefs lost seven of last nine road openers, but Reid won five of his last six. Chiefs are 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. Home side won last three series games; last two were decided by total of five points. Hoyer gets nod as Houston’s QB; they weren’t decisive in choosing him. Over is 10-6 in Houston home games the last two years, 23-15-1 in KC road games in last five years.

Browns @ Jets— Cleveland is 1-15 in last 16 season openers, with only win in 2004- they’re 3-6-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road openers. Jets have a new coach, Fitzpatrick at QB; they are 18-27 as home favorites since ’07, but won last four home openers, three by 5 or less points. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Browns lost by 6-11 in last two games vs Jets; they were 5-1-1 as road dogs in first year under Pettine. Under is 19-13 in Cleveland road games the last four years. Cleveland suspended its OL coach because of a DUI (not his first) so that is a problem.

Colts @ Bills— After four years as Ravens’ backup, Tyrod Taylor makes first NFL start here for Bills. Indy lost last four Week 1 road openers, are 1-4 in last five road openers, with seven of last ten staying under total, but they added Frank Gore/Andre Johnson; should have damn good offense. Colts won seven of last eight games vs Buffalo– average total in last four, 33.5. Bills won five of last seven home openers, covered 10 of last 13 as home dog; Rex Ryan was 6-2 as a home dog last two years with Jets. Last three years, Indy is 8-3-1 as road favorite, 13-9-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 33-22-1 in their last 56 road games.

Panthers @ Jaguars— Carolina covered just two of last eight as a road favorite; underdogs are 17-7 vs spread in its road games last three years. Jacksonville is 2-6 in last 8 home openers, losing last three by combined score of 99-26. Home side won four of last five series games; three of last four were decided by 6 or less points. Panthers lost by 10-31 points in their two visits here. Jaguars are 8-23-1 as home underdog since ’10 (5-16 in non-divisional games); under is 20-12 in Jax home games last four years. Over is 20-12 in Carolina road games the last four years. Carolina lost Benjamin for year; what WRs will step up and replace his production?

Dolphins @ Redskins— Washington’s summer was a total mess; Cousins gets start at QB- they need a win to shut critics up. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost last three visits here by 20-11-3 points- their last win here was in ’84. Dolphins are 2-9 in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21, including last six in row. Washngton is 4-7 in last 11 games as a home dog; they’re 8-13 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less. Since ’06, Skins are 10-22-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Miami is 15-10 in last 25 games in which spread was 3 or less. Redskins scored 31.8 ppg in last four home openers but still split the games (over 4-0).

Seahawks @ Rams— Seattle is 17-3 in last 20 series games, 2-3 in last five visits here; Rams used two great fake punts to upset the Seahawks LY. How much will addition of star TE Graham bolster Seattle’s offense? Rams are 2-6 in last eight home openers, 1-4 vs spread as an underdog- over is 11-6-1 in their last 18. Seattle lost seven of last eight road openers (1-4 vs spread if favored); since 2010, they’re 2-5 as a divisional road favorite. Rams are 7-6 in last 13 games as a home dog; over is 19-12-1 in their home games last four years. Average total in last ten series games is 32.4. Since ’02, Super Bowl loser is 2-11 vs spread in its opener the next season.

Saints @ Cardinals— Arizona won eight of last nine home openers covering three of last four; last three stayed under total. Cardinals are 12-3-1 in last 16 games where spread was 3 or less. How much will loss of TE Graham make Saints more of a running team? Home side won last five series games; Saints lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 2-24-10 points. NO is 13-24-1 vs spread last five years on road, 10-14 SU last three years- they covered once in last eight road openers, with six of last seven going over. Arizona is 7-2-1 as home favorites under Arians.

Lions @ Chargers— Home side won eight of last ten series games; San Diego won six of last seven, winning last four here, three by 6 or less points. Detroit is 4-9 as road dogs since ’12, 5-10 in last 15 non-divisional road games; under is 12-4 in Lion road games last two years, 19-12 in San Diego home games last four years. Since ’10, Chargers are 10-4 as non-divisional home favorite; they’re 8-13 in games with spread of 3 or less. Detroit is 3-11 in road openers last 14 years (4-10 vs spread); under is 3-1-1 in last five- they won in Week 1 in each of last four years- three of those were home.

Titans @ Buccaneeers— Couple of rookie QBs starting here, with solid defensive coaches on other side. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with Titans winning six of last seven vs Bucs. Tennessee is 1-2 here, with last visit in ’07. Tampa Bay lost seven of last nine season openers; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Bucs scored 16-14-14 in last three home openers but they have an OC this year (Tedford was ill LY). Titans are 8-12 as road underdogs since ’12, 7-14-2 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Bucs are 6-12 as favorites since ’11, 5-11-2 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points.

Bengals @ Raiders— Oakland lost last five times they opened at home; last Week 1 home win was in ’02. Raiders lost by 8-4-5 in last three season openers; underdogs are 3-0-1 in last four. Silver and Black are 15-22 as home dogs since ’06, 5-10 as non-divisional home dog since ’10. Home side won last five series games, with Oakland 4-2 in last six; Bengals lost last ten visits here, but their last visit here was in ’09 (they were 1-3 vs Raiders in LA back in day when Raiders lived there). Cincy covered once in last six tries as road favorite; under is 14-8-1 in their last 23 road games.

Ravens @ Broncos— Kubiak is Denver’s HC; he was Ravens’ OC LY, so their defense will know what to see from Broncos. Denver is 23-3 SU in last 26 home openers, 10-4-1 vs spread in last 15; they scored 37 ppg in Week 1 in three years Manning has been here. Broncos are 16-7 as home fave in Manning era, 10-4 in non-division games. Ravens lost three of last four road openers but are 5-2 vs spread as a dog in road openers; over is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Over is 28-12 in Bronco home games last five years. Ravens lost four of last six in Denver, but won playoff game here in ’12; they’re 4-8-1 vs spread in last thirteen games as a road underdog. Lot of inexperience on Denver OL, bad news if you have an immobile QB.

Giants @ Cowboys— Dallas won last four series games, with 55.2 average total in last five series games. Cowboys are 8-24 as home favorites since 2010, 3-9 in divisional games; they covered once in last six tries as a favorite in home opener. Giants are 7-9 as a dog since ’13; they lost 36-31/31-21 in last two visits here- in last eight seasons, they’re 14-10 vs spread in NFC East road games. Over is 10-1 in Giants last 11 road openers, 1-3 in Dallas’ last four home openers. Big Blue will be without four of top five tacklers from LY and their safeties were crippled by injury this summer. Dallas averaged 10.7/9.5 ypa vs NYG LY.

Eagles @ Falcons-– Philly won last six road openers, winning SU as dog last two years; three of their last five were decided by 3 or less points. Under Kelly, Eagles are 9-7 vs spread on road, 11-4 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Falcons won last two vs Philly 35-31/30-17; average total in last three series games is 53.7. Over is 11-5 in Eagle road games under Kelly. Atlanta is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less; they’re 9-5 as home dog since ’08. Falcons went 10-22 last two years so they made change on bench; new OC Kyle Shanahan is familiar with Eagles from his days in Washington.

Vikings @ 49ers— Peterson back for Minnesota; he last played in LY’s opener. Lot of changes with 49ers, few for better; they were 44-19-1 under Harbaugh. 11 of 22 starters from LY are gone now. Niners won last four openers and scored 28+ in all four- they’re home underdog for first time since 2011. Home side won 10 of last 11 Viking-Niner games; Minnesota lost eight of last nine visits here; they’re road favorite for first time since ’12, 12-5 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less. Vikings are 4-10 in last 14 road openers, with eight of last 11 staying under total. Since 2007, 49ers are 3-11-3 as an underdog of 3 or less points; 11 of their last 16 home games stayed under total.