Coach Fletcher’s Monday MLB Free Pick
7:15 pm Cincinnati Reds at SF Giants
The Pick OVER 7.5 -125
This is a shortened version of what I had previously written. Even though my wife is certain that “operator error” was the reason I lost the document, I’s sticking with the story that it’s the computer’s fault! Here is a shorter version – sorry about that. Damn’ computer!
The Pitchers – Both of these pitchers deserve an ‘over’ sticker. But I will start with my go to guy, one Keyvius Sampson. I thought Sampson might be something special when he first came up. In his first start he went 5 against the Pirates giving up 3 runs and 3 hits in 5 innings. I actually bet him in his next start where he went 6 against the Rays an only allowed 1 run and 4 hits. I also bet him against the Dodgers in his next start, and it was, in fact, a free pick on this very site that paid off at =150 or thereabouts. After that everything has gone downhill for Sampson. Not so for me since I’ve been going over in his games and done quite well.
Sampson – 4 straight overs; 5 of last 6 over ; 2-4 on the year with a 7.13 era; 4.91 road era ; 9.75 era in last 3 starts – 12 earned runs in 11 innings. Has never faced the Giants but I’m sure they are looking forward to seeing him. 7.42 era last 7; 6.94 era last 15; 7.18 era at night; 8.64 era in August; LH hit .373 against him; RH hit .262 against him.
Hudson – Hudson’s a sneaky guy. If you first look at his stats he looks like the perfect over guy – but not so fast. 3 straight unders; 4.51 era overall; 4.38 era at home; 4.20 era last 3 starts; 3.08 against Reds in 9 starts – 5 over and 4 under. 4.15 era in last 7; 4.83 era in last 15; 4.21 era at night; LH hit .319 against him; RH hit .265 against him.
The Hitters – Most of these raw numbers are good for looking at a total of 7.5
Reds score 4.0 per game; Reds give up 4.0 per game
Giants score 4.3 per game; Giants give up 3.8 per game.
Remember these are averages for all pitchers. So Bumgarner’s stats are included here. Neither of these pitchers are Bumgarners.
The Reds score 3.7 on the road. The Reds give up 4.4 on the road.
The Reds score 4.4 vs RHP. Opponents score 4.4 against Red RHP.
Reds have averaged 4.6 last 7 games. Reds opponents have averaged 2.7.
The Reds score 4.2 runs at night. The Reds give up 4.4 runs per night.
The Giants score 4.1 runs per game at home. The Giants allow 3.3 runs per game at home.
The Giants score 4.3 runs against RHP. The Giant RHO give up 3.8 runs per game.
In their last 7 games the Giants have averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Giants have given up 2.6 runs pr game in their last 7.
The Giants average 4.4 runs per game at night. The Giants give u 3.7 runs per game at night.
Odds and Ends – I’m going to leave out a lot of numbers here that are not conclusively over or under indicators. Suffice it to say that in many areas it does not appear that the over is exceptionally strong. But here are some good ones.
Reds – 8-4 to the over in Sept; 49-43 over at night; 8-3 over last 8 games.
Giants – 51-48 to over vs RHP; 52-42 over against teams with losing records; 3-3 over/under last 6.
Here are the good ones:
In the last 16 games between these two teams it has gone over 10 times.
In the 3 games played this season is has gone over 3 times.
In the last 7 games between these two teams in SF it has gone over 5 of 7.
Coach’s Conclusion: Sampson could well take this game over by himself. I’m hoping the Reds leave him in to give up at least 5. Hudson could surprise us with one of his gems, but I think not. His era is consistently in the medium to high 4’s and there is no reason to suspect he will hold the Reds to less than 3 runs. I’m taking the over.
OVER 7.5 -125