Coach Fletcher’s Tuesday MLB Pick
4:04 pm Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles
The Pick Boston Red Sox +114
First of all, this is absolutely the worst time of the year to bet baseball. Kershaw went off Monday at about -355. Tuesday you have Strasburg at -230, deGrom at about -250, Anderson at about -240 and that’s just the National League! King Felix opened at -207 against the Angels but for some unknown reason he has been bet down to the -180’s. I can’t in good conscience give you Anderson at -240 nor can I suggest you go against him. If you are a big bettor and don’t mind laying 1000 to win 400, that’s ok. A lot of pros do that stuff. But you won’t get it for a free play just to build up a good record.
Kelly Goes for 9th Straight Versus O’s
+Who’s the hottest pitcher in the league? Maybe Bartolo Colon? Maybe Clayton Kershaw? How about Joe Kelly?
The Pitchers
Kelly, Red Sox
Joe Kelly will walk to the bump tomorrow as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. He sits at 10-6, not bad for a Boston team that is currently 68-74. Kelly’s era is 4.70 and that’s come down from the mid 5.00’s where he stood for most of the season. He’s not the hottest on the road but he is 4-3 with a 4.72 era. In his last 3 starts Kelly is 3-0 with a 1.89 era. He’s also beat the Blue Jays and the Mets in 2 of his last 3 wins. He’s not pitching against Podunk. He has not been effective against Baltimore going 1-2 with a 4.76 era. They rocked him for 12 hits and 7 runs in two starts this year that totaled 9 1/3 innings. But that was the “old” Kelly. In his last 7, Kelly is obviously 7-0 with a 1.85 era. He’s gone 9-2 in his last 15 with a 3.80 era. He’s 6-4 at night with a 4.48 era and is 2-0 with a 2.31 era in September. He’s 8-1 post All-Star with a 3.45 era.
Jimenez, Orioles
Ubaldo has been up and down this year. Right now he is 11-9 with a 4.22 era. He’s 6-2 at home with a 3.36 era and he is 2-1 with a 3.93 era in his last 3 starts. Jimenez is 3-2 with a 4.71 era in his last 7 games. He failed to get past the 5th in 5 of his last 6 starts. He is 9-7 at night with a 4.24 era. He is 2-0 with a 2.84 era in September and 4-5 with a 6.53 era post All-Star. What is frightening is that Jimenez is 2-3 with an 8.06 era in 9 starts against the Bosox. In 2 starts this year he has finished 8 2/3 innings and allowed just 3 earned runs and 6 hits.
The Pens
Red Sox – 4.60 on the road ; 36 saves and 19 blown saves
Orioles – 3.55 era at home ; 35 saves, 11 blown saves
I like to go with the hot hand and the hot hand is Kelly. He couldn’t be pitching much better. Jimenez is dangerous and can shut down any team on any given day. But he has had less success against the Red Sox than Kelly has had against the O’s. And Kelly has never been better. We just have to worry about a potential collapse from the dreadful Boston pen.
The Hitters
Red Sox – Boston scores a hefty 4.7 runs per game. They drop down to a miserable 3.8 rpg when on the road. They score 4.6 rpg versus right handers. They’ve stepped it up lately scoring 6.3 runs per game in their last 7. They score 4.2 at night and 4.4 rpg in division.
Orioles – The Orioles score 4.5 runs per game. They average a nice 5.0 at home and 4.6 rpg versus RHP. They’ve also been hot in their last 7 scoring 6.4 runs per game. They score 4.3 rpg at night and 4.7 in division.
The Orioles appear to have an edge in offense.
Odds and Ends
The Red Sox are 68-74 and the Orioles are 69-73.
The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game for a run differential of MINUS 0.1.
The Orioles allow 4.2 runs per game for a run differential of PLUS 0.3.
The Sox are 29-39 on the road while the O’s are 42-29 at home.
Boston is 7-4 in September and Baltimore is 6-5.
Boston is 25-34 vs division foes and Baltimore is 30-29.
The red Sox are 49-52 against RHP and the O’s are 49-54.
Boston is 59-44 versus teams with losing records.
Baltimore is 47-33 against teams with losing records.
Baltimore has the edge in games played this year (5-1) and the last 3 years (31-20).
Coach’s Conclusion:
Boston has won 5 of their last 7 and celebrated David Ortiz’s 500th HR the other day. Guess what they can celebrate if Kelly wins today? Kelly will tie Pedro Martinez as the only Boston hurler to win 9 straight starts! Kelly is no Pedro Martinez but he is hot as he has ever been. I will take him in this one – a game that basically has no meaning for either team. But you can be sure that Kelly will give it his all and I’m guessing the team will support him. I’m taking Boston.
The Pick Boston Red Sox +114