DAVE ESSLER
57 STL RL-1.5 (+105) vs 958 MIL
Analysis: I don’t think we’ve laid the -1.5 too many times this season, and I do know that we’ve never done it with a home team, potentially not getting the last at bat. And, since we don’t lay -160 on the road – let’s do this. Matt Adams is obviously back and the Cardinals appear to be hitting some sort of September stride as the seemingly always do. Garcia two-hit the Brewers a month or so ago (in Milwaukee) so even SOME regression might not hurt. Garcia was hammered in Cincinnati last week, but IMO that was the “whoops” outing, because he’s only given up more than three earned runs twice in sixteen starts. Those are good odds to make this bet, and Peralta can just suck. With the Cardinals having the day off on Tuesday one would expect the “A” lineup, including Yadier. St. Louis to a man has hit Peralta well, and Garcia hasn;t even faced the Brewers enough to matter, IMO. Milwaukee has 115 at at bats against him – Lucroy had 30 of them and he’s out (too bad, because he had seven hits), Braun has 42 at bats with only 8 hits, and Segura is 5-15, so between the three of them they’ve got 20 of the 21 hits the Brewers have. I know that’s a small sample size, but you’ve gotta start somewhere. The Cardinal pen has an ERA of 2,84 over the last week, which is significantly better than the Brewers’ pen – so we’ll go with it and it’s not the one-run game.