JOE GAVAZZI
Friday, September 18th, 2015
Florida St. (-8) at Boston College 8:00 ET ESPN
So far, Florida St. has outlasted outmanned foes Texas St. (59-16) and USF (34-14), splitting the ATS wars. Despite the Sems’ 3-10 ATS mark of last year, due to the overrated price tags because of QB Winston, Florida St. is still getting plenty of love by the linemaker. Not that I am impressed with the choice of opening week opponents by 3rd year BC HC Addazio, whipping Maine (24-3) and Howard (76-0) – mercy rule invoked in shortening the game – the jury is still out on a team that has just 9 RS, including 3 on the offensive side of the ball. But, there is little doubt that Addazio is getting the most out of his Eagles. In a 20-17 loss at Florida St. last year (as +17), his hard-nosed, fundamentally sound troops outrushed the Sems 240-110. That made it consecutive covers for Addazio over Fisher, including the 48-34 loss on this field as 24 point home pup 2 years ago. Fundamentally, BC returns the No. 2 run defense in the land at 94/3.1 and is a team who loves to run the football. Witness the 255/5.2 averages of LY! It is a good reason why this blue-collar program is 6-1 ATS as home short vs. ranked teams. Eagles are a bit scary in this spot, as line begins to contract. But at the current price, they are the value side.
New Mexico at Arizona St. (-28) 10:00 ET PAC 12 TV
Backing the Lobos, even as 4 TD puppy, is a bit scary, considering the negatives of their perennially bad defense that has allowed an average of nearly 40 PPG and over 500 yards each of the last 2 years for 4th year HC Davie. Last week, the Lobos gave up 40 in a 19 point home loss as 5 point chalk to a Tulsa team, who was 2-10 SU LY. In so doing, the Golden Hurricanes totaled a balanced 600 yards. Just think what 4th year HC Graham might want from his Sun Devils, as he continues to build confidence for the PAC 12 slate ahead. Concerns for Sun Devil success are the 35-21 final as (-35) on this field last week, when they allowed option-based Cal Poly to run for 284 yards overland. Lobos are a bit of a clone with their “pistol” offense that has averaged over 300 YPG and over 6.0 YPR in the 3 years under HC Davie. Buyer beware, considering that the one-dimensional aspect of this offense makes it tough to catch up should they fall behind by a large margin, as they did in the 58-23 home loss to this team last year. Final factors in our favor are the record of HC Davie who is 8-3 ATS as road dog, 9-4 ATS as double digit dog with revenge and catches an Arizona St. team who has failed to win or cover any of the 3 games under Graham the week before facing the USC Trojans.
35-13 (73%) Joe’s FREE Plays this Season.