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Reply To: WEEK 2 – Thursday Service Plays 9/17/15

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Admit it… This play makes you uncomfortable, doesn’t it? That’s the feeling I got when I made my bet (at the line of 42.5). The Denver Broncos have been so good to us ‘OVER’ bettors in the last few years. You actually feel like you are CHEATING on them when you decide to bet the ‘UNDER’ instead, don’t you? It’s almost like Denver has been FREE ‘Over’ money whenever you bet on them in the last few seasons. Peyton Manning has been an OVER ‘machine’ since he came to the Mile High City. But like ALL patterns and tendencies, things change over the years. It’s the SHARP bettor or SHARP Over / Under player that recognizes AHEAD of TIME when it is time to go the other way. That’s the case on Thursday night as Manning and his Broncos (who went Under EASILY in Week One) take on the great Kansas City defense.

Under the new Denver offensive coordinator (Gary Kubiak), Peyton Manning is under center a lot MORE. That’s something that is not a great idea, given his recent reduced mobility. His fastball has lost its zip. He has had ALL off-season to get healthy again. And the fact that the Broncos HAVE NOT SCORED A TOUCHDOWN in ANY of the 20 offensive drives that Manning has led since the start of the 2015 pre-season speaks volumes! He was sacked three times in the first half of Sunday’s games against the Ravens. He has not been sacked that many times in a full game in TWO seasons. And on Thursday, he takes on a Kansas City defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passing game to a quarterback in more than two seasons. Last season’s two games versus the Chiefs had OU lines of 50.5 and 49. This Thursday’s line is a full TD LOWER at 42 points. This has been a ruthless OU line regression by the oddsmakers. And it’s entirely justified.

DENVER has gone 0-6-1 O/U in the last four seasons in DIVISION games when the OU Line is 47 or less points…

KANSAS CITY has gone 3-13-1 O/U in their last 17 roles as a home FAVORITE in the last four seasons… including 1-6-1 O/U as shorter favs of < 7 points. NFL Over / Under tendencies on this particular Day of the Week… THURSDAY division games in the NFL have gone 7-25 O/U since 1982 when the home team (Kansas City) is a favorite of < 6 points. Last season, these Thursday primetime DIVISION games went 1-7 O/U… with an average of only 33.3 combined point per game! Over / Under tendencies within this particular division… 0-6-1 O/U since 2009: All AFC WEST DIVISION games in the first month of the season (Games 1-4) when the home team (Kansas City) is favored by 14 < points. As mentioned above, BOTH of these teams won their first game of the season last week. We want to always look to ‘Go LOW’ (as of late) in the second game of the season in this situation… 2-11-1 O/U last four years: All GAME TWO home favorites when BOTH teams (Chiefs + Broncos) are off a SU Game One WIN… and the OU line is 52 < points. These games went a PERFECT 0-3 O/U last season (Mia @ Buf … Atla @ Cinc… Det @ Car). Kansas City went OVER in their road win against the Texans last week. Meanwhile, Denver went UNDER in their home win against the Ravens last week. 0-7 O/U last four years: All DIVISION home favorites of < 7 points off a SUATS win that went ‘OVER’ (Chiefs) versus any opponent off a SUATS win that went ‘Under’ (Broncos)… when the OU line is < 54 points.