Coach Fletcher’s Thursday MLB Free Pick
4:10 pm Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
The Play Game OVER 8 -115
Tillman, Moore Create Perfect Conditions for an OVER
The Pitchers
Tillman, Orioles
Chris Tillman was looking good from June 5 through August 17. He won 7 straight decisions in that span. However, since then, Tillman has lost 4 straight. Tillman is 9-11 with a 5.21 era. Tillman has been hit hard by the Ray’s roster. 5 Rays are hitting .300 or better off Tillman. Evan Longoria is at .366 with 6 bombs against Tillman in just 41 at bats. Logan Forsythe is at .353 and Grady Sizemore is at .300. Brandon Guyer is hitting .375 and Joey Butler is hitting .667 in minimal at bats. Tillman’s era on the road is 5.79 and in the last 3 games he has been rocked for an 11.77 mark. In his last 13 innings Tillman has been torched for 17 runs and 20 hits. He is 5-9 against Tampa Bay with a 4.27 era. In his last start vs Tampa Bay, Tillman surrendered 7 runs and 8 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Tillman’s era is 7.97 n his last 7 starts. He’s 7-7 with a 4.16 era at night. LH are hitting .260 against him and RH are hitting .279. In September batters are tagging Tillman for a .345 average.
Moore, Rays
Moore has had a miserable season after spending some time on the DL. He is 1-4 with an 8.42 era. In his last start on Saturday against the Red Sox, Moore was tagged for 4 bombs. He has gone 5 innings or fewer in 9 straight starts. The Oriole hitters have chewed him up. 6 Orioles are hitting over .300 against Moore. 4 Orioles are hitting .500 or better off Moore. Matt Weiters and Adam Jones have both gone deep twice off Moore. His home era is 8.24 and in his last 3 games Moore’s era is 9.94. He is 4-4 against Baltimore lifetime with a 4.15 era. In one start against Baltimore this year he was blasted for 5 runs and 8 hits in 5 innings. In his last 7 starts Moore’s era is 8.53. Moore is 0-2 with a 9.31 era and in September his era is 7.45. Post All-Star break he is 0-4 with a 9.27 era. LH are hitting .283 against Moore and RH are hitting a monster .386.
And I ask myself, why is the total for this game at 8? It boggles the mind.
The Bullpens
Orioles – 2.70 on the road ; 36 saves, 12 blown saves
Rays – 3.60 era at home ; 53 saves and 20 blown saves
From the numbers these pitchers put up, over 8 seems like a given.
The Hitters
Orioles – The Orioles score and average of 4.4 runs per game. They give up an average of 4.2. On the road they score 3.9 and they score 4.0 vs LHP. They have averaged 6.1 runs the last 7 games but only 3.4 rpg in the dome. They average 4.3 at night and 4.7 in division.
Rays – The Rays score 3.8 runs per game and give up 3.9 runs per game. At home they average 3.7 and against RHP they average only 3.6. They are scoring 4.9 runs per game in their last 7 and score only 3.6 in the dome. At night they average 4.1 and in division score 3.7.
So we now learn why the total is just 8. The Rays are a horrible run producing team. But even though they often score less than 4 per game, their opponents average 4 or above in all but 2 categories. The other factor is the dome called Tropicana Field. Overall Tropicana is the 9th most hitter friendly park, so the low dome numbers are perplexing. At any rate, despite the plethora of low numbers, neither of these pitchers seem to be able to get batters out. I know what you’re thinking, why not bet Baltimore as well. I wouldn’t mind.
Odds and Ends
Baltimore goes under 47.4 % and Tampa goes under 48.95.
As a home team, Tampa Bay goes over 55.4%. As a road team, Baltimore goes over 43.9%.
As favorite, Tampa Bay goes over 52.4. As a dog Baltimore goes over 47.8%.
As home favorite Tampa Bay goes over 48.8%. As away dog, Baltimore goes over 43.1%.
Both teams scored 1 run on Wednesday.
After a loss, Tampa goes over 47.8% and Baltimore 47.1%.
On no rest, Baltimore goes over 46.2% and Tampa goes over 48.7%.
In division, the Rays go over 37.3% and the Orioles go over 53.4%.
In September, Baltimore has gone over 10 times and under 4 times.
In September, Tampa Bay has gone over 7 games and under 6 games.
In dome games, Baltimore is 2-5 to the under.
In dome games, Tampa Bay is 36-30 to the over.
Baltimore is 40-40 over/under against teams with losing records.
Tampa Bay is 53-47 to the over against teams with losing records.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Those linesmakers are no dummies. There is more than adequate statistical information to support a total of 8 in this game, regardless of who is on the mound. Even so, I am going to bite on this one and go with the over. I may also go with Baltimore, but definitely the over.
The Pick Game OVER 8 -115