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Reply To: MLB Previews, Articles, Info. Friday 9/25/15

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Coach Fletcher | MLB Money Line

free pick – 903 PHI (+244) vs 904 WAS

4:05 pm Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

The Pick Phillies +224
Nationals Haven’t Given Up Yet, or Have They?

With slim hopes remaining for playoff baseball, the Nationals have responded exactly the way they have responded all year – with an unenthusiastic thud! The Nats were just swept by the Orioles! What a remarkable set of underachievers. Picked by many to be in the World Series, the Nats will go home after game 162. I won’t fall for the hype with this team again.

The Pitchers

Jered Eickhoff, Phillies

Eickhoff is just 1-3, but he has a nice 3.16 era. His whip is 1.14. Other than the record, he is at least the equal of Zimmerman in other areas. Eickhoff is 1-2 on the road with a 3.37 era and his era for his last 3 starts is 3.50. In his last start he went to Atlanta and shut out the Braves for 7 innings on 5 hits. In the game before that won he held the Cubs to just 3 hits and 1 run in 7 innings. So in his last 14 innings he has given up 8 hits and 1 run. Not too shabby. If you remove the run game where he got rocked in Boston for 4 runs in 6 innings, his overall era drops to 1.91. His era in night games is 1.91 and he is 1-2 in those 4 starts. LH are hitting a crisp .281 against Jered, but RH are hitting just .176.

Jordan Zimmerman, Nats

Zimmerman is 13-8 with a 3.49 era and a 1.20 whip. Zimmerman is 8-3 at home with a 2.50 era and he is 1-0 in his last 3 with a 4.50 era. In his last start he held Miami to 6 hits and 2 runs over 6 innings. In the start prior to that he was pounded by these same Phillies for 6 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. Zimmerman has gone 5-0 with a 4.04 era in his last 7 games. Zim is 10-5 at night with a 3.06 era. Post All-Star break has him 5-3 with a 3.87 era. LH are hitting him for .289 and RH .236.

The Bullpens

Phillies – 3.98 on the road ; 32 saves and 14 blown saves

Nats – 3.21 at home ; 39 saves and 21 blown saves

I believe you can make the case that Eickhoff, in this short sample, has better overall numbers than Zimmerman. He’s shown great potential, for sure. Zimmerman is 6-7 versus the Phils in his career and the Nats are 7-8 against the Phils when Zimmerman has toed the rubber. The price on the Nats is absurdly high – especially for a team that may have packed it in already.

The Hitters


The Phils only score 3.8 runs per game. They score even less on the road at 3.4. The go up to 3.7 against RHP. They have only averaged 2.0 runs per game in their last 7. Their pitching staff has allowed only 3.7 during that time. They score 3.8 at night and 3.6 in division.


The Nationals average 4.5 runs per game. At home they score the same. Against RHP they also average 4.5. In their last 7 games they have averaged 5.0 runs per game. At night they average 4.5 and in division they average 4.5.

Without doubt the Nats have the most potent offense. Will it show up today against Eickhoff? Have they already started cleaning their golf clubs? Nobody knows for sure, but this National team has something wrong with it – in the front office, in the clubhouse, or maybe with manager Matt Williams.

Odds and Ends

The Phils are 57-96 and the Nats are 78-74.

The Phils allow 5.1 runs per game and the Nats allow 4.0 runs per game.

The Phils have a MINUS 1.3 run differential and the Nats are PLUS 0.5.

The Phils are 24-54 on the road and the Nats are 44-33 at home.

The Phils are 5-16 in September and the Nats are 12-10.

The Phils are 24-43 against division and the Nats are 40-27.

The Phils are 36-67 at night and the Nats are 48-53.

The Phils are 42-77 against RHP and the Nats are 56-57.

The Phils are 31-64 after a loss and the Nats are 35-39 after a loss.

The Phils are 30-62 against teams with winning records.

The Nats are 67-51 against teams with losing records.

There is no doubt why the Nats are -244 favorites in here.

Coach’s Conclusion:

In the ultimate crunch time, when you are trying to save your season even though there is little chance, you either show up or you don’t. I’d say the Nats have failed to show up. They have just been swept by the Orioles. They scored 8 runs in the 3 games and lost 2 games by 1 run. That’s the sign of a team that’s packed it in – something many have accused them of doing all season. I wouldn’t dispute that for a second. I know I sound biased against the Nats and I am. It pains me to see a team with this talent fail to reach anywhere near their potential. I’ll take a kid like Eickhoff who will be pitching like his life depends upon it. The Phillies, as bad as they are, have assembled a decent group of young pitchers and Eickhoff is the best. Hopefully, in the off season, they will acquire some bats. Call me crazy (and I’ve been called much worse), but I’m taking the huge overlay here with the Phillies.

The Pick Phillies +244