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Reply To: Week 4 – Saturday Service Plays 9/26/15

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Brandon Shively

BIG 12 Game of the Year WINNER – Texas Tech +8.5
This is Texas Tech’s Super Bowl so-to-speak. After TCU ran the score up on them 82-27 last year, The Red Raiders have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time. Texas Tech is playing with confidence and momentum after beating Arkansas last week. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes gives the Red Raiders offense a legit running threat along with his arm that makes this air raid offense much more dynamic. Mahomes has 4 rushing TD’s on the season and has 129 yards on the ground. He has an offense loaded with juniors and seniors. The offensive line is very experienced. The Red Raiders have 4 receivers that have 10 or more receptions through the first 3 games. HC Kliff Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with Texas Tech. He had covers at home last year vs. Oklahoma and West Virginia. In 2013, Texas Tech beat TCU at home, 20-10 as a 3 point homedog. Texas Tech returns 17 starters total this season. They have a much more experienced defensive line and secondary. I know their offense can trade blows with TCU, but it will be their defense that makes the difference in this game. TCU is not as good as advertised. The losses on defense have been huge for this team. TCU lost 6 starters from last year’s team. Now they are down 7 starters after junior cornerback Ranthony Texada went out last week. There are 4 other TCU starters that have not played this season. (Iloka, Douglas, Pierson, and McFarland). This TCU defense gave up 508 yards to SMU last week on their home field. Looking at the TCU defense that played Ole Miss in last year’s bowl game and the TCU team that will be playing Texas Tech this week, it’s possible that they will have 10 different players than who started against Ole Miss in the bowl game. TCU is not a good road team. Last year they only beat West Virginia by 1 point and only beat Kansas by 4 points. Since coming to the BIG 12, TCU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite, including a close 23-17 win this season @ Minnesota whose offense is sub-par at best. This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech like I noted earlier. This is a high-powered offense that is catching a TCU team that probably has the most key defensive injuries in college football. It will be too much for them to overcome. Take Texas Tech this Saturday afternoon.