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Reply To: Week 3 – "Super Sunday Football" Service Plays 9/27/15

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Brady Kannon | NFL Side Sun, 09/27/15 – 1:00 PM

dime bet – 462 STL 2.0 (-110) vs 461 PIT
Analysis: I am seeing mostly +1 or PICK out there now and even a +2.. so most importantly, you should still be able to get The Rams as an underdog.. but I would not wait too long do to so.

We were on St. Louis in Week One and against them in Week Two, for two successful trips, and we are back on them today in what I believe is another good situation for The Rams, especially as a home underdog.

Week Two was not a good spot for The Rams as they had just beaten the rival Seahawks in a very big win for the tea™m but now I believe they get back to business, at home, and continue on what I believe will be a successful season. On the flip side, The Steelers were in a fantastic spot last week having played the prior Thursday, taking on a 49’ers team that was on the road off of a short week, playing on Monday night. But one thing we have come to know this season is that Pittsburgh’s defense is not good and while I firmly believe in The Rams and Jeff Fisher as a home dog, I also believe it will be The Steeler defense that allows The Rams to stay in this game and get the win.

The Rams have an excellent defense, one of the top units in the league, and this will face a Pittsburgh offense that is also very potent. LeVeon Bell is back for The Steelers but I have to believe there will be a little rust there and I also don’t feel the adjustment in the line is justified. St. Louis opened this game earlier this summer as a 1.5 point favorite and now getting as many as two points this week, I don’t know how one makes a 4.5 adjustment for Bell.. and this is probably not the only reason for the swing as The Rams were beaten pretty good by The Redskins while Pittsburgh throttled The 49’ers. Still, I see The Rams as the better team here and being at home, they should still be laying the points, not their opponent.

Here are some numbers for you.. Rams Head Coach Jeff Fisher is the best underdog coach in the league and as a home dog, he is 33-and-19 ATS. Home dogs in Game 3 of the season, off of a SU loss, hosting an opponent off of a SU win, are 53-33-and-3 ATS.. and I believe this trend especially applies here because of what the two teams did on the scoreboard last week – that I feel has the line skewed too much. Pittsburgh is on a 12-and-22 ATS streak on the road, and in the first 4-games of the season, Coach Mike Tomlin is 0-and-9 on the road versus an opponent off of a loss.

Finally, if you look at the percentages of bets on this game, nearly 90% of the tickets being written are on The Steelers, yet the line is coming down. This indicates that the much bigger money is on The Rams. So will be mine.